Political analyst Edgar Elbakyan argues that the Armenian opposition unused resource may significantly influence the outcome of the 2026 national elections. The recent Vagharshapat local elections highlighted two major trends: a large pool of untapped voters and the government’s increasingly harsh response toward critics.
Armenian opposition unused resource remains significant, says political analyst Edgar Elbakyan.
The recent Vagharshapat elections revealed two key trends.
The first trend is the opposition’s unused electoral potential.
The second is the government’s increasingly harsh reaction to critics.
Real picture of the vote
Elbakyan says the talk about a “victory” does not match the facts.
About 69,000 citizens had the right to vote.
The government-backed candidate received around 15,000 votes.
This equals only 21–22%, not 50%.
The higher percentage appears only if you count participants, not all eligible voters.
Elbakyan says this cannot be presented as broad public trust.
60% of voters remain undecided
The latest “Armenian Project” poll shows a major trend.
About 60% of voters dissatisfied with the government do not know whom to support.
Elbakyan calls this a huge, unused resource.
He says opposition parties should not compete for the same voters.
Instead, they must work with the undecided majority.
Targeted work can convert this group into real votes.
Government reactions have already begun
One day after the elections, the Anti-Corruption Committee conducted searches.
They targeted several members of the “Victory” alliance.
Five people were charged.
Elbakyan sees these actions as political signals.
He links them to the Prime Minister’s recent messages about 2026 elections.
Pressure on national-minded opposition will rise
Elbakyan says pressure will increase as the election cycle approaches.
He expects stronger actions in spring.
He adds that pressure will not stop even after the elections.