The developments unfolding around Iran are not merely another war but part of a broader process of shaping a new world order, said Hrant Melik-Shahnazaryan, political analyst and head of the Voskanapat Analytical Center.
The Formation of a New World Order and “Secret” Agreements
Melik-Shahnazaryan does not rule out the possibility that secret agreements may lie at the core of the ongoing processes—arrangements the public may never learn about. According to him, certain understandings could have been reached at higher levels, for example, to restrain the activity of Turkey or Russia.
However, he emphasizes that even if such agreements exist, the Armenian authorities are not party to them. In his view, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is not involved in these “top-level” arrangements and does not possess the full picture of decisions being made in major power centers and their potential consequences for Armenia.
The Risks of War Around Iran for Armenia
The political analyst urges a sober and logical assessment of the situation, regardless of foreign policy complexities. He argues that an escalation of war around Iran entails several concrete risks for Armenia.
The first is the possibility of a humanitarian crisis. A large influx of refugees cannot be ruled out, and it remains unclear whether Armenia would serve as a final destination or merely a transit country. The second risk concerns disruptions to supply chains. Part of Armenia’s imports—including goods from the United Arab Emirates and China—pass through Iranian territory, particularly via the port of Bandar Abbas. Military operations could severely affect these routes.
According to Melik-Shahnazaryan, if Armenia cannot manage external risks, it should at least take clear and visible steps to address internal ones. Yet, he argues, such preparedness is not evident. Meetings of the Security Council appear, in his assessment, to be more formalities than indicators of genuine strategic readiness.
Borders and an Export Dead End
The analyst also stresses Iran’s strategic importance for Armenia. Iran is not only a traditionally friendly country but also one of Armenia’s two functioning external land gateways.
To the north, Armenia’s land routes lead to Russia, which itself faces restrictions in its external connections. If the southern direction were to be effectively closed or become unstable, Armenia could find itself in a logistical dead end, facing serious difficulties in both imports and exports.
In Melik-Shahnazaryan’s assessment, the escalation of war around Iran constitutes not only a foreign policy challenge for Armenia but also a profound economic, infrastructural, and security challenge that requires systematic and realistic preparedness.