The escalation of tensions between the West and Iran may have extremely serious consequences for the national and state interests of the Republic of Armenia and the Armenian people, said political analyst Abraham Gasparyan. In his view, the region is entering a phase of large-scale, hard-to-manage, and unpredictable developments in which the word “peace” has turned into a dangerous illusion.
A Major War Under the Label of “Peace”
Gasparyan recalls that over the past year, a number of summits have been held under U.S. leadership with a declared “peace” agenda. According to him, there were statements claiming that several conflicts had been settled, that new mechanisms would replace the UN Security Council, and even references to peace awards.
However, the political analyst argues that reality suggests the opposite: under the label of “peace,” the region is effectively standing on the brink of a large-scale war. Information flows are changing so rapidly that the situation can shift dramatically within hours.
He notes that the Arab states of the Persian Gulf — Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia — as well as Iran, Iraq, and Jordan, are involved in the ongoing processes. Meanwhile, he suggests that the official silence of Turkey and Azerbaijan may indicate at least intelligence or informational involvement.
Armenia’s Response Problem
Gasparyan criticizes the passive stance of Armenia’s foreign policy establishment, arguing that the phrase “we are monitoring developments” is insufficient in such a crisis. In his view, after the 12-day Iran–Israel war, Armenian diplomacy should have demonstrated initiative by presenting assessments and forecasts.
According to the analyst, security is not limited to protecting borders; it also includes managing energy, economic, and migration flows. In this context, he highlights the risk of possible mass migration from Iran.
Gasparyan recalls that following the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, discussions had already emerged about potential destabilization in Iran and migration waves. If asymmetric migration movements begin in a country of 85 million people, hundreds of thousands could cross borders.
He believes that some of these flows may head to Azerbaijan and others to Armenia. However, the most dangerous scenario, in his view, would be if hundreds of thousands ended up in Azerbaijan, as this could become an additional lever for Ilham Aliyev to once again advance the agenda of the “return of Azerbaijani refugees.”
The Illusion of “Guarantees”
The political analyst also questions the effectiveness of international guarantees. He notes that assurances had previously been given that no military action would take place during negotiations with Iran, yet hostilities began before the talks were concluded.
“What guarantees are we talking about?” he asks, stressing that Armenian society must realistically assess the risks and be prepared for various scenarios.
According to Gasparyan, war can “enter your home” regardless of one’s wishes. In such circumstances, the state’s primary task should be preparedness, as the region stands on the brink of explosive transformations.