Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s statements that Armenia has no intention of leaving the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) mean only one thing — Armenia will not withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) either. This was stated by international affairs expert Grigor Balasanyan.
“If the country remains in the EAEU, continued membership in the CSTO becomes automatic. There is no alternative,” the expert said. “With this visit, Pashinyan essentially signaled that Armenia is more likely to unfreeze its relations with the CSTO than to exit the organization — despite claiming the opposite shortly before the visit.”
Balasanyan is convinced that there was no external pressure on the Armenian side regarding this issue, and the decision was made solely based on economic calculations. According to the latest data from the National Statistical Committee, Armenia’s exports have decreased by 53%, and imports by 38%. These are alarming figures, especially considering Armenia still enjoys the privileges of EAEU membership. If Armenia were to leave the EAEU, its economy could face collapse.
“No matter what anyone says, we are dealing with hard realities,” Balasanyan noted. “And the reality is that the EAEU — especially Russia — remains Armenia’s main export destination. It appears that Armenian economists did the math and concluded that the country simply cannot afford to exit the EAEU. And if it cannot leave the EAEU, it will inevitably remain within the CSTO.”
Balasanyan added that while the authorities may continue to criticize the CSTO and present themselves as disillusioned with the alliance, they will nonetheless endorse its decisions and documents. “Armenia will continue to sign off on all CSTO resolutions, even those adopted without its direct involvement due to Yerevan’s current position.”
Continued CSTO membership, Balasanyan believes, is also dictated by the broader geopolitical context. “If the decision were up to Pashinyan alone, and he bore no responsibility for its consequences, he would undoubtedly choose to leave the CSTO,” the expert said. “However, today’s geopolitical reality is one of interconnectedness — every player is tied to others, and one link’s move affects the entire chain. Armenia’s position in this chain leaves it with little room for maneuver.”