Amid ongoing regional tensions, relations between Iran and Azerbaijan are currently in a phase of mutual restraint. This assessment was presented by Turkologist Ruben Melkonyan. According to him, both countries appear to be preparing for possible escalation, yet certain factors are still preventing the implementation of more aggressive scenarios.
However, Melkonyan warns that the sides could shift to more active actions at any moment. The current relative calm is fragile and could collapse quickly.
Iran’s concerns about possible Israeli presence
The expert recalls that Iran has repeatedly stated that Israeli or Western military presence in the region is unacceptable to Tehran. These statements are often accompanied by hints that such presence may exist in Azerbaijan as well.
Recently, Iran’s armed forces also called on “Muslim Azerbaijan” to remove Israeli structures and forces from its territory. According to Melkonyan, these statements fit into Iran’s broader strategic approach, through which Tehran seeks to exert pressure on states where Western or Israeli structures operate.
He also notes that similar logic can be seen in missile or military actions against certain countries in the region, such as the United Arab Emirates or Kuwait.
Azerbaijan’s territorial and ideological claims
According to Melkonyan, another source of tensions lies in Azerbaijan’s ideological and territorial narratives. He notes that Baku frequently promotes the concept of the so-called “Northern and Southern Azerbaijan.”
Within this concept, Iran’s Atropatene province is portrayed as historically Azerbaijani territory divided by the Araks River. The Turkologist believes that such narratives are also fueled by pan-Turkist structures actively promoting these ideas.
Melkonyan argues that if Iran weakens at any point, Azerbaijan could become one of the first countries to attempt a ground military incursion in order to advance its strategic ambitions regarding certain Iranian territories.
Fragile stability in the region
The expert also points out that Turkey currently has little interest in Azerbaijan being immediately drawn into a war. Ankara has certain commitments, including those related to the Shusha Declaration.
Nevertheless, Melkonyan believes that the region remains extremely fragile. If the situation in Iran spirals out of control, Turkey might attempt to establish a buffer zone along the Turkish-Iranian border, repeating actions previously carried out in northern Syria.
According to the expert, the Middle East has historically remained a zone of competition among major powers, and the current developments represent another manifestation of that rivalry.