Developments surrounding Iran are now affecting other countries in the region, including Lebanon. Reports indicate Israeli airstrikes in the country. At the same time, a humanitarian crisis is emerging, as official Lebanese data suggest that the number of displaced people has reached nearly half a million. Explosions were also reported in Beirut yesterday. Israel stated that the strikes targeted members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and senior Iranian military representatives. Political analyst Yeghia Tashchyan spoke about the current situation and possible future developments.
Military activity already recorded at the border
According to Tashchyan, the situation along the Lebanon–Israel border remains tense, and the risk of military escalation is real. He notes that limited military clashes have already been recorded in several border villages.
Against this background, residents are leaving southern Lebanon, which may have serious consequences. In his assessment, this trend could lead to ethnic cleansing or significant demographic shifts. Tashchyan points out that what is currently happening in southern Lebanon resembles, in certain aspects, developments seen in recent years in the Gaza Strip and other Palestinian territories.
At the same time, a large-scale invasion similar to those seen in 1982 or 2006 has not yet occurred. However, he believes the possibility remains quite real.
Tashchyan suggests that Israel may attempt to advance several kilometers into Lebanese territory to exert stronger pressure on both the Lebanese government and Hezbollah. Such a scenario, he warns, could also lead to a severe humanitarian crisis.
Tensions between the government and Hezbollah
At the same time, tensions are visible in Lebanon’s domestic political arena, particularly regarding Hezbollah’s activities. According to Tashchyan, the Lebanese government has decided to limit Hezbollah’s military activity. However, the main challenge lies in implementing this decision in practice.
He explains that the Lebanese armed forces are currently in a very difficult situation, facing severe shortages of both ammunition and financial resources.
Under these circumstances, the army must simultaneously manage two conflicting tasks: implementing the government’s decisions while avoiding potential internal clashes within the country.
Hezbollah itself is also facing a complicated situation. On the one hand, the organization seeks to maintain its military influence and continue playing a deterrent role against Israel. On the other hand, Lebanon is experiencing a deep economic and political crisis, which severely limits the country’s overall capabilities.
According to Tashchyan, Hezbollah’s future will depend on several key factors that may determine the direction of upcoming developments.
The first factor is regional dynamics, particularly the relationship between Iran and Israel. The second factor is Lebanon’s internal political and economic situation, which remains unstable and fragile. The third factor is international pressure and diplomatic processes, which may significantly influence both Lebanon’s internal stability and broader regional security.