The situation around Syunik Province is becoming increasingly complex: it encompasses both growing attention from external actors and internal political priorities. According to political commentator Akop Badalyan, the actions of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan are driven by a desire to maintain power, even if it means sacrificing substantive and strategically important issues.
According to him, the issue of the road through Syunik is fraught with numerous contradictions, with an evident clash of interests among several major and regional powers regarding the use of this route. In such conditions, Badalyan believes, it is difficult to expect stable solutions. Against this backdrop, Pashinyan is attempting to maneuver on the issue of transport corridors, aiming through these maneuvers to exert the necessary pressure on Azerbaijan and secure the signing, or at least the initialing, of a peace treaty ahead of the 2026 elections.
“Pashinyan’s main goal is to preserve room for maneuver while securing short-term benefits, including in the context of potential pre-election processes. For this, he is ready to subordinate the substantive aspects of the issue to his own domestic political logic. The calculation, it seems, is based on the assumption that contradictions among external actors will allow him to avoid direct responsibility for decisions made now.
However, such logic is extremely risky. By relying on the restraining factor of existing contradictions, Pashinyan may make significant concessions that, in the event of a failure of the mutual containment scenario, could prove irreversible. This creates additional risks for the country.”