Unblocking communications should involve creating a transport configuration that fosters mutually beneficial cooperation, limits any side’s desire to gain unilateral advantages through force or pressure, and over time increases trust—the key factor in ensuring the irreversibility of peace in the region. This was stated by former Armenian Prime Minister Hosrov Arutyunyan.
Armenia and the Challenges of Long-Term Development
Arutyunyan noted that Armenia is the only country in the region without access to the sea, meaning the country’s stable and dynamic development will directly depend on the actions of its neighbors. If Armenia seeks peaceful and sustainable growth in the long term, it must ensure institutional and neighborly relations with all countries in the region. At the same time, this should be done so that long-term development does not raise concerns among neighbors or provoke attempts to obstruct it.
“This is a very complex task, especially considering the quality of our neighborhood and the current period. Does Armenia have the resources to implement such a concept in practice? This is a very important question. In my view, we unfortunately do not have such a critical resource as time—the situation has been created in which time works against us,” the former prime minister said.
Geography as a Strategic Resource
He added that, against this backdrop, Armenia’s geographic location remains an important resource that must be transformed into geopolitical potential. This requires certain steps that would make Armenia’s involvement in various projects attractive to major players. In such a scenario, these players would have a vested interest in Armenia developing dynamically.
In this context, unblocking Armenia’s borders becomes a crucial component, Arutyunyan emphasized. However, he added, unblocking should involve forming an economic and transport configuration with neighbors that encourages mutually beneficial cooperation, limits the desire of any side to gain unilateral advantages through force or pressure, and gradually builds trust—the primary factor ensuring irreversible peace in the region.
Baku-Ijevan-Yerevan: The Only Acceptable Initial Configuration
Arutyunyan believes that the only way to ensure such a configuration is to restore the railway connection Baku — Kazakh — Ijevan — Dilijan — Yerevan, and then onward via Yeraskh to Nakhijevan. He emphasized that the length of the railway section planned by Turkey — Kars — Igdir — Dilucju — is 244 km. The Turkish side has already secured a $2.5 billion loan for constructing this section, he added.
According to Arutyunyan, this section should be connected to a railway section running through Nakhijevan and Armenian Meghri to Baku. In this case, the total length of the route would be 815 km. For comparison, the Baku — Tbilisi — Kars railway is 826 km long.
“Baku — Kazakh — Ijevan — Dilijan — Yerevan — Gyumri — Kars is exactly 600 km, which is 215 km shorter than what is currently being attempted,” he emphasized.
Risks of Unilateral Advantages and Strategic ‘Leverage’
However, Arutyunyan continued, the issue is not just distance. “The question is whether, with such a configuration, Azerbaijan could attempt to gain unilateral advantages by exerting pressure on Armenia? Let’s consider: the distance from Baku to Kazakh is 361 km, from Ijevan to Akhuryan or Yeraskh is 278 km. If Azerbaijan, based on some economic interest, increases transit fees, for example by 5 cents per ton per kilometer, Armenia could raise its fees by 6 cents to compensate. In this case, Azerbaijan would not achieve the desired unilateral benefits because the ‘leverage’ in both cases is proportional,” he noted.
In the proposed route through Meghri, Armenia has only 47 km of the route, Arutyunyan reminded. “If our entrepreneurs want to send their goods using the Azerbaijani railway from Yeraskh to the Russian border, the distance is 850 km, most of which passes through Azerbaijan. Imagine a scenario in which Azerbaijan raises the fee by 5 cents per ton per kilometer—can you imagine how much Armenia would need to raise fees over its 47 km to balance the situation?” he said.
The Meghri Route: A Matter of Trust
Arutyunyan emphasized that he is not opposed to using the Meghri route, but not at this stage—rather, 10 years after all communications are fully unblocked, when trust between the parties has been restored. He is convinced that if it is done now, Azerbaijan would only use this communication, hindering the use of other routes.