For decades, Armenia was viewed as a classic emigration country. In recent years, however, this pattern has started to change. Since 2022, rising inflows, the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war, the facilitated entry of Indian citizens, and the difficult situation of displaced people from Artsakh have formed a new reality.
Migration expert Tatevik Bezhanian explains the main trends, risks, and expectations for 2025–2026.
From an emigration country to an immigration destination
Bezhanian notes that Armenia historically experienced steady outflows. Over the past three years, this picture has shifted. Since 2022, the country has become more attractive for newcomers. Migrant flows from India have increased sharply. Arrivals from Russia also rose due to economic reasons and attempts to avoid mobilization triggered by the war.
By 2024–2025, these trends partially stabilized. Entry rules for Indian citizens became stricter, reducing the inflow. The number of Russians arriving also declined because of legal restrictions and reduced wartime pressure.
Emigration to Russia: still seasonal, but steadily decreasing
The number of Armenians traveling to Russia for work remains high, but it has dropped by about one-third compared to 2022–2023. According to Bezhanian, the main reason is the rapid tightening of migration rules inside Russia. The changes are so frequent that even officials struggle to navigate them. Many people end up on control lists or receive unexplained entry bans.
Despite this, many Armenian workers still leave for seasonal employment: they travel to Russia in spring and return in autumn, spending only 2–4 months a year in Armenia. Family relocation has decreased due to the unpredictable legal environment in Russia.
People displaced from Artsakh: shifting attitudes and legal challenges
Displaced people from Artsakh do not show a high emigration rate, but they face serious legal risks.
A key protection tool is the government-issued plastic card with a QR code. In Armenia, it supports social integration. Abroad, it acts as a safety document confirming that a person cannot be deported to Azerbaijan.
Lack of this card may lead to dangerous legal situations, especially for those who previously entered Russia using passports marked with code 070.
Bezhanian highlights another risk: obtaining Russian citizenship. Once a person receives it, they automatically lose refugee status. If they later lose that citizenship — for example, for refusing military service — they may become stateless.
Expectations for 2026: tighter rules and shrinking mobility
Bezhanian expects 2026 to bring significant new restrictions. Amendments to Russia’s labor code, already adopted in two readings, allow regions to set their own quotas for foreign workers starting March 1. Employers will be required to dismiss employees who fall outside these quotas.
Despite EAEU agreements, Russian authorities have stated that the rules will apply to all foreigners without exception.
According to the expert, this alone will lead to a further decline in the number of Armenians leaving for Russia.