Donald Trump’s return has significantly shifted U.S. foreign policy priorities.
According to political analyst Suren Sargsyan, Washington is now more inclined toward stabilizing relations with Russia rather than direct confrontation. As a result, European states face Russia alone, which increases their activity in the South Caucasus.
Europe understands that it must advance its agenda independently.
Sargsyan notes that rivalry between Europe and Russia is not new. History has seen many “hot” and “cold” phases of this geopolitical struggle. The logic remains unchanged: global competition continues as long as major powers exist.
China’s rise creates a new level of competition
China’s growth is a key driver of global transformation.
The world moved from bipolarity to unipolarity. Today China demands a larger role, expanding geopolitical competition into nearly all regions.
The South Caucasus is no exception.
Major powers have intensified their rivalry here. States in the region are increasingly viewed as tools in a broader geopolitical contest.
The South Caucasus as a space for forming spheres of influence
External actors see the region as a single strategic space, not as isolated countries.
Sargsyan compares this to the Baltic model, where three nations advanced toward NATO and the EU together. The South Caucasus lacks such unity, which enables global players to compete for influence separately.
Armenia’s missed opportunity with China
Armenia was the last country in the region to sign a strategic cooperation document with Beijing.
Sargsyan argues that Armenia uses only a fraction of the available potential.
“If the potential is 100, we operate at five,” he says.
He stresses that the entire world is deepening ties with China, and Armenia cannot afford a passive approach.
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