U.S. President Donald Trump has again issued threats toward Iran, stating that if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened, the United States may carry out strikes on Iran’s power plants and, more broadly, its energy infrastructure. This topic is also important for Armenia, as Yerevan cooperates with Tehran specifically in the energy sector. In particular, a gas-for-electricity barter scheme is in place, under which bilateral trade is carried out. Can such developments affect this arrangement and Armenia’s energy system as a whole?
Reliability and structure of Iran’s energy system
According to former Deputy Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure for Energy Hakob Vardanyan, Iran’s energy system is large-scale, developed, and diversified, with a significant number of highly qualified specialists involved. Based on his personal experience, the system is built on high reliability principles. In particular, many substations have dual or triple supply, meaning that the failure of one element does not lead to the failure of the entire system. Overall, more than a thousand high-voltage substations operate in Iran, and the system is significantly diversified. In this context, according to Vardanyan, “zeroing” Iran’s energy system even through several powerful strikes — that is, disabling it entirely in a short period of time — is practically impossible. What is possible is only sequential, systemic, phased damage that may accumulate over time.
Possible consequences of targeted strikes
Speaking about the potential impact of such strikes on Armenia, Vardanyan notes that damage to individual generating facilities will most likely not have critical consequences for the system as a whole. However, the key factor is where these facilities are located and what role they play in the overall system stability. If infrastructure located in segments connected to Armenia is targeted, frequency deviations, reduced stability, and other systemic disturbances are possible, which will inevitably be felt in Armenia’s energy system as well.
Limitations on electricity exports
First of all, a deficit of electricity may arise in Iran. If infrastructure is not damaged, theoretically this could create an opportunity for Armenia to increase electricity exports. However, according to Vardanyan, Armenia’s transmission lines are already operating at near full capacity, and such an opportunity is practically limited. In addition, the third transmission line has not yet been commissioned, which also restricts the possibility of increasing mutual flows.
The issue of frequency regulation
Vardanyan places particular emphasis on the issue of frequency regulation. “If problems arise with frequency in Iran’s energy system, this may have serious consequences for Armenia as well, since frequency regulation in our system is carried out in parallel with Iran’s energy system,” he noted. According to him, this issue is especially sensitive in the current season, when the share of non-dispatchable generation increases along with the growing number of sunny days. “Under these conditions, the frequency regulation service provided by Iran’s energy system is of vital importance for us,” Vardanyan emphasized.
Reactive power deficit
Another key issue is the shortage of reactive power. Armenia is constantly in a state of reactive power deficit, which, according to Vardanyan, becomes more acute starting from April. Reactive power ensures the “movement” of electricity within the system. When its level decreases, voltage drops occur, which may lead to automatic shutdown of generating stations. In this context, the import of reactive power from Iran is of vital importance for Armenia. Its shortage may lead to serious systemic problems.
Seasonal factors and system load
Vardanyan notes that in summer the demand for reactive power increases sharply due to the active use of deep pumps, air conditioners, and other consumers. At the same time, the growth of solar generation is not accompanied by the production of reactive power, while some small hydropower plants, on the contrary, consume it. In addition, planned shutdowns of the nuclear power plant reduce one of the main sources of reactive power in the system, further complicating the situation.
According to Vardanyan, in some cases the situation can be managed by disconnecting solar power plants or increasing the load on thermal and hydropower plants to compensate for reactive power. However, these mechanisms have limitations and cannot provide a long-term solution. If the supply of reactive power from Iran is interrupted for an extended period, serious problems may arise in the system.
Possible scenarios and consequences
At the same time, Vardanyan notes that even in the case of intensive strikes, the scenario of a complete collapse of Iran’s energy system is unlikely, given its scale and reliability. Nevertheless, in the event of disruptions, the operator of Armenia’s energy system will have to switch to a different mode of operation, which will be more costly and may be accompanied by outages and power interruptions. In this context, the possibility of revising the schedule of the planned shutdown of the Armenian nuclear power plant is not excluded. It is noted that in 2026 a long-term shutdown of about five months is planned, which, under such risk conditions, may place additional strain on the system. According to the expert, a more flexible and оперативный (responsive) approach is required to ensure system stability.