The prospects of the TRIPP initiative are practically exhausted, regardless of how the military-political situation around Iran unfolds. This view was expressed by political analyst Stepan Danielyan.
TRIPP loses relevance under any scenario
According to Danielyan, if Iran “surrenders” and comes under U.S. control through the formation of a new government, the need for TRIPP will simply disappear, as Iran itself would become a regional base for Washington.
In the alternative scenario, if Iran does not surrender and resists, the implementation of TRIPP will also become impossible, since Tehran will not allow such a project. The analyst notes that Iran is already demanding that Persian Gulf countries remove long-standing U.S. military bases from their territory. This suggests that a similar stance will apply to new American initiatives.
TRIPP without security guarantees
Addressing whether the collapse of TRIPP prospects implies a loss of security guarantees, Danielyan states that the initiative was based on a document that does not impose any obligations on the United States.
He notes that the current authorities attempted to present this initiative as a security guarantee, arguing that U.S. presence alone would deter potential aggression against Armenia. However, Danielyan considers this a political narrative that does not reflect reality.
He points out that the United States has substantial economic and military interests in the Middle East. To protect these interests, infrastructure worth billions of dollars has been built, including military bases, radar systems, and airfields. This indicates that such “guarantees” do not function in practice.
Danielyan also notes that Iran is already striking such targets, targeting U.S. military presence and conducting actions against Israel.
Iran’s role and limits for regional projects
According to Danielyan, if Iran withstands the pressure, it will not allow the formation of a “Turkic world” at the expense of its northern borders and will continue to pursue a firm policy toward Azerbaijan.
In this context, he concludes that projects like TRIPP lose their practical foundation, as they conflict with Iran’s vital interests.