Russia could impose additional economic restrictions on Armenia in an attempt to make the country’s social situation more difficult and provoke a serious wave of public discontent. This view was expressed by political strategist Armen Badalyan.
According to him, one possible tool could involve measures against Armenian citizens living in Russia, potentially including the issue of their expulsion. Badalyan said such measures could affect around 800,000 Armenian citizens residing in Russia.
Mass Returns Could Create Social Tensions
The political strategist emphasized that the forced return of a large number of Armenian citizens could have not only economic but also significant social consequences.
“Imagine that around 300,000, 250,000 or even 200,000 people suddenly return to Armenia. In that case, certain social movements could emerge, and their consequences would be unpredictable,” he said.
Badalyan noted that many Armenians living in Russia own apartments, businesses or other property there but often do not hold Russian citizenship.
“If these people are expelled and return to Armenia angry, they will no longer be thinking about whether a police officer is standing in front of them. They will try to direct their anger against the actor they believe caused them to lose their property — the Civil Contract party and the authorities,” he said.
A Major Crisis Is Unlikely Without Mass Returns
At the same time, Badalyan said such developments would be unlikely without a large-scale return of migrants.
According to him, Armenia currently faces many smaller social problems, but these alone are unlikely to trigger a major crisis because businesses will attempt to find alternatives.
“However, if a large and dissatisfied group is brought back to Armenia, then yes, there could be a problem. Otherwise, at this stage it is doubtful that serious social movements will emerge,” he said.
Labor Migration Could Also Come Under Pressure
Addressing other possible restrictions, Badalyan said Russia could also target labor migration.
In his assessment, additional administrative and migration measures could make life more difficult for Armenian citizens working in Russia and thereby increase pressure on Armenia’s economy and society.
Remittances Could Become Another Pressure Tool
Badalyan also pointed to financial transfers from Russia to Armenia as another potential instrument.
He said Moscow could theoretically restrict the channels through which labor migrants send money to their families in Armenia.
“If Russia takes several more steps — imposing restrictions on different sectors of the economy and then closing the channels through which labor migrants send money to Armenia — serious problems could emerge,” Armen Badalyan concluded.