A study in Russia examined which countries’ exporters have recently been most active in taking over positions in the Russian consumer market that were previously held by Armenian producers.
According to the analysis, restrictions imposed by Rosselkhoznadzor on exports from Armenia have created particularly significant opportunities for exporters from Azerbaijan and Georgia.
Azerbaijan Quickly Moves Into Armenian Market Niches
According to the study, Azerbaijani exporters reacted quickly and began supplying Russia with agricultural products that had previously been imported in significant volumes from Armenia.
Azerbaijan faces no major logistical obstacles in accessing the Russian market. The two countries share a border, with three checkpoints operating along the Dagestan section. This gives Azerbaijani exporters a significant logistical advantage over Armenian suppliers, particularly given the recurring queues and transportation problems at the Upper Lars checkpoint.
Statistical data show that Azerbaijani exporters increased their trade turnover with Russia by more than 3% in January-June. However, an important factor should be taken into account: Rosselkhoznadzor’s latest restrictions on Armenian agricultural products only began in May.
According to the analysis, the current increase in Azerbaijani exports may therefore be greater than the overall January-June figures indicate.
Growth has been particularly noticeable in agricultural products.
Azerbaijani Tomato, Fish and Fruit Exports Rise
In particular, Azerbaijani tomato exports to Russia reached approximately $160–164 million, an increase of around 10% compared with the same period last year.
Exports of stone fruits, including apricots, also increased. Revenue from apple sales rose by 5.5%.
One of the most significant increases was recorded in Azerbaijan’s fish exports. Fish supplies to the Russian market rose by approximately 43%.
Exports of Azerbaijani mineral water also increased by around 14%.
According to the analysis, these figures indicate that Azerbaijani producers quickly took advantage of the market opportunities created by restrictions on Armenian exports.
Another circumstance is also noteworthy. According to the assessment, the phytosanitary indicators of Azerbaijani agricultural products have not always been as “excellent” as they currently appear. Nevertheless, Russian supervisory authorities have not imposed comparable restrictions on Azerbaijani products.
Moreover, discussions of the growth of Azerbaijani products on the Russian market explicitly note that Azerbaijani exporters are taking over market positions previously occupied by Armenian suppliers.
Turkey, China, Egypt and Uzbekistan Also Benefit
Azerbaijani and Georgian companies are not the only exporters seeking to fill the positions vacated by Armenian products on the Russian market.
Exporters from Turkey, China, Egypt and Uzbekistan are also benefiting from the process. Georgia’s role, however, is particularly noteworthy.
Georgian exporters have significantly increased shipments of sweet cherries and sour cherries to the Russian market.
At the same time, some circles in Russia suggest that Georgia may also be engaged in re-exports. Georgia’s economy minister has denied such claims.
Nevertheless, one statistical indicator stands out: this year Georgia recorded a historic high in trout exports. The volume of trout exported from Georgia to Russia increased approximately ninefold within a year.
This has led to speculation in Russia that it would have been impossible to produce such a large volume of trout in Georgia itself and that some of the product may have arrived from other countries before being re-exported to Russia.
Such schemes, however, are difficult to prove. As the analysis notes, a similar issue arises regarding the origin of Azerbaijani gas, amid claims that some gas supplied from Azerbaijan to Europe may actually be of Russian origin.
Regardless of such theories about origin, Russia continues to receive the products it needs.
Armenia-Russia Trade Was Already Declining
Rosselkhoznadzor’s latest restrictions on Armenian exports come amid an already established decline in trade between Armenia and Russia.
According to available data from January through the end of May, trade turnover between Armenia and Russia declined by approximately 20%.
Here again, however, timing matters: Rosselkhoznadzor’s latest restrictions began in May. The decline may therefore have deepened after May, and their full impact will only become clear later.
Available data nevertheless indicate that the downward trend in Armenia-Russia trade had begun before the latest restrictions were introduced.
Armenia’s Agricultural Export Dependence on Russia Is Declining
The geography of Armenia’s agricultural exports has also changed significantly in recent years.
While approximately 96% of Armenian agricultural exports previously went to the Russian market, that share fell to around 70% in 2025.
Russia therefore remains the primary destination for Armenian agricultural products, but its share has declined substantially.
At the same time, Armenia’s trade with other EAEU member states — Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan — has not experienced a comparable decline. On the contrary, some growth trends are visible in those markets.
This suggests that the issue is not solely related to the EAEU market or the broader trade environment. The decline in trade between Armenia and Russia has its own specific factors.
Armenia’s Overall Exports Remain Almost Unchanged
Despite the weakening position of Armenian products on the Russian market and the decline in Armenia-Russia trade, Armenia’s overall export volume has not yet changed dramatically.
Compared with the previous year, the figure remains approximately at the same level, at around $7.9 billion.
The developments therefore point less to an overall contraction in Armenian exports than to a redistribution of export destinations and markets. Meanwhile, positions vacated by Armenian products in the Russian consumer market are rapidly being occupied by exporters from other countries, with Azerbaijan and Georgia among the most notable beneficiaries.