The reasons Turkey continues to keep its border with Armenia closed should be sought in Baku’s growing influence within Turkish-Azerbaijani relations. This is the view of historian and diplomat Jirair Libaridian.
According to him, Azerbaijan used to depend on Turkey, but the situation has changed to some extent: Ankara has itself become economically dependent on Baku. Libaridian believes Azerbaijani investment matters greatly to Ankara given the difficult state of Turkey’s economy. Azerbaijan still has financial resources, and its investments in Turkey have become an important factor.
“I recently met with Turkish diplomats and told them that Ankara had effectively outsourced its policy toward Armenia to Baku. They say, ‘No, it is not quite like that,’ but in fact it is,” Libaridian said.
Aliyev uses every opportunity that arises
In the historian’s view, Baku is seeking to make the most of Western interest in its peace process with Armenia. He pointed to the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace agreement as an example: its text was ready, yet the process did not move forward for a long time.
Libaridian said one of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s main concerns was criticism of his country under the Biden administration over human rights and democracy. In his view, Aliyev wanted to change that attitude and secure a reception at the White House.
According to the historian, Aliyev used the opportunity to link the initialing of the peace agreement to a meeting with Trump and the strengthening of his international legitimacy. Libaridian also believes Azerbaijan wanted to advance its expectations concerning the reopening of regional transport links.
He stressed that Aliyev’s ambitions extend beyond a regional role. The Azerbaijani president wants his country to be seen internationally as a middle power rather than a small state, and he wants to become a recognized and influential leader in wider circles.
Why the West wants Armenian-Azerbaijani peace
Asked why the West is interested in peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan and why it would provide Baku with political and economic support in return, Libaridian pointed to energy and transport links.
According to him, Azerbaijan’s importance to Europe lies less in its own energy reserves than in the possibility of transporting oil and gas from Central Asia to Europe. “It is also very important for trade between Europe and Central Asia. They envisage Azerbaijan as the most important link in all of this,” the diplomat said.
Libaridian added that the West’s interest in Armenian-Azerbaijani peace is also connected to the need for alternative transport routes. He said Georgia is not currently a fully reliable partner for the West, while a route through Armenia could provide a more direct connection.
Addressing why those links could not be developed entirely through Georgia, Libaridian cited a statement by Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze that Tbilisi does not regard the TRIPP project as a competitor.
“He said there would be so much freight traffic that other routes would be needed too. It was a very interesting statement because it differs from the Russian approach,” Libaridian concluded.
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