Political struggle does not begin solely because the opposition decides to act or is ready to take to the streets. Several conditions must come together: public sentiment, the readiness of political forces, emerging divisions within the government and geopolitical interests. This is the view of political strategist Karen Kocharyan.
Several conditions must align for street protests
He said every political struggle has its moment. Its success depends on more than a single event, the number of participants or access to coercive resources. A range of domestic and external factors must align. In Kocharyan’s assessment, the convergence of geopolitical and regional powers’ interests also matters greatly in Armenia’s current situation. It could have a significant effect on the course of domestic politics.
The political strategist stressed that taking to the streets should not be an end in itself. He believes the opposition should have learned from its experience over the past six or seven years. During that period, numerous political efforts raised public expectations that were later disappointed, causing frustration among opposition supporters as well.
Kocharyan said the opposition’s caution can also be understood in this light. He recalled that Nikol Pashinyan himself once said he would take to the streets once, with the intention of seeing the struggle through. Kocharyan considers that approach reasonable and pragmatic. “I think the right moment will come when all the stars I mentioned align, and there will be a street struggle as well,” he said.
Divisions may also emerge within the government
According to Kocharyan, cracks emerge sooner or later within any government, and the current one is no exception.
While he sees some truth in descriptions of Nikol Pashinyan’s centralized leadership, Kocharyan believes there are different groups within the government, each with its own goals, areas of influence, people and financial resources.
Their interests do not always coincide, he said. Some may be dissatisfied at losing influence while others gain new levers of power. In Kocharyan’s assessment, this could become a source of internal discontent. As an example, he pointed to pay rises planned from January 1. Because they will not apply to everyone, they could also cause dissatisfaction within the government.
Kocharyan also observed that the recent public statements and behavior of some government representatives have prompted sharp reactions from both opposition supporters and people who support the government.
He said these reactions are visible within the governing camp too. Critical responses and mocking posts about statements by some Civil Contract politicians circulate beyond opposition circles. Government supporters actively react to them, as do, in some cases, people within the government itself.
In the political strategist’s view, these developments may also indicate growing discontent inside the government.
Every era produces its own leaders
Choosing a leader is another important part of the opposition’s struggle. Kocharyan believes former political leaders can play an important role as advisers but can no longer lead new movements.
Every era produces its own leaders, he said. He supports the involvement of former and experienced politicians because they possess institutional memory, information and experience that newer political figures do not yet have. But, in his view, that does not mean they should once again take the lead.
“They can be the chief advisers, but new actions require new faces,” Kocharyan said.
He emphasized that it is currently difficult to predict which of the names being discussed could become a genuine leader. Leadership, he said, emerges during the struggle itself. Some people attract high expectations but fail to meet them at a decisive moment. Others are not expected to lead, yet unexpectedly become the central figure in a political movement.
👉 Politics