The Washington summit has provided the region with a period of relative stability. One important indication of this, according to political analyst Tigran Grigoryan, is that discussions about possible escalation and security threats originating from Azerbaijan have declined significantly over the past year.
Grigoryan said a second positive development following the Washington summit has been a change in the broader regional atmosphere, which has become somewhat more cooperative.
At the same time, he acknowledged that Azerbaijan’s behavior cannot be assessed unequivocally. Baku continues to promote and keep several aggressive narratives active, including the so-called “Western Azerbaijan” agenda. At the same time, however, there have also been concrete actions aimed at peace and cooperation.
According to Grigoryan, these actions may also serve other Azerbaijani objectives, but their practical effect is nevertheless more positive than the alternative scenario.
“In any case, opening one’s territory for transit and taking similar steps create a more positive atmosphere,” he said.
For Armenia, Grigoryan believes the current situation is clearly more advantageous.
“Naturally, it is better for Azerbaijani territory to be open, for there to be contacts and trade, than for the threat of escalation to remain,” he said.
The Real Test Will Come After TRIPP Is Launched
At the same time, Grigoryan cautioned that the final effectiveness of the Washington process can only be assessed once the planned agreements are implemented in practice.
In his view, it will be particularly important to see what happens after TRIPP becomes operational.
The analyst argued that the process should not be judged solely by the launch of TRIPP itself, but by whether it is followed by the broader opening of regional infrastructure and communications.
“We will be able to assess the final results of this process not only when TRIPP begins operating, but when we see what else starts functioning after TRIPP and what remains closed,” he said.
Armenia Needs Access in Multiple Directions
According to Grigoryan, a key issue for Armenia in the coming years will be whether the opening of regional communications creates genuine and multidirectional economic and transportation opportunities for the country.
If, alongside the launch of TRIPP, Armenia gains access through Azerbaijani territory to Iran and Russia, receives connections between different parts of its own territory, and the Armenian-Turkish border is also opened, then the process could be considered successful.
If those opportunities fail to materialize or are implemented only partially, however, assessments of the Washington process could change substantially.
In this context, Grigoryan stressed that what matters is not only the physical operation of infrastructure but also its actual accessibility and the scale of opportunities it creates for Armenia.
Reduced Escalation Risk Is Already an Important Gain
Regardless of future developments, Grigoryan emphasized that the current relative stability in the region is itself an important achievement for Armenia.
He noted that between 2020 and 2025, security threats and the risk of renewed escalation were among the dominant concerns of both the Armenian state and society.
An improved security environment therefore gives the country and the public greater room to focus on other priorities.
According to Grigoryan, this is particularly important because it allows Armenia to move beyond the logic of a permanent security crisis and redirect state and societal resources toward addressing other challenges.