The potential for cooperation between Armenia and the United States under TRIPP extends far beyond restoring railway connections. Political analyst Hovsep Khurshudyan argues that some of the project’s most important components could be oil and gas pipelines capable of turning Armenia into a major regional energy and logistics transit route.
“Armenia and the United States are discussing very serious infrastructure projects within TRIPP. It is not only about the railway. The most important element here is the construction of oil and gas pipelines,” Khurshudyan said.
According to him, the railway could be accompanied by the reopening of road networks, as well as the construction or restoration of cable, electricity and other infrastructure. However, he believes energy transit could have the greatest economic and geopolitical significance for Armenia.
Kazakh Oil Through Armenia to Europe?
Khurshudyan places particular importance on the possibility of transporting Kazakh oil through Armenia.
According to him, Kazakhstan is currently experiencing difficulties exporting its oil through the Novorossiysk route. Russia has at various times restricted the operation of relevant infrastructure, while Ukrainian strikes have also created problems around ports and terminals used for oil transportation.
The analyst argues that these circumstances are forcing Kazakhstan to seek alternative export routes.
One possible solution could be a new pipeline carrying Kazakh oil through Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey before reaching European markets.
“The Kazakhs, as well as the Americans and those corporations — particularly American oil companies — are prepared to build this new pipeline so that Kazakh oil, and later perhaps Uzbek oil as well, could come through Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey and from there go directly to Europe,” Khurshudyan said.
In his assessment, routing such infrastructure through Armenian territory could address several challenges at once by generating transit revenue and increasing Armenia’s strategic importance.
A Route for Turkmen Gas
Khurshudyan believes the same logic could apply to natural gas.
In his view, current volumes of Azerbaijani oil and gas alone may not be sufficient to justify entirely new high-capacity pipelines. The calculation changes, however, if Kazakh oil and Turkmen gas are incorporated into the system.
“If Turkmen gas joins the route and a new system is being built, naturally it will be built with substantial capacity. Turkmen gas could go to Europe and fully compensate for Russian gas,” he said.
Khurshudyan argues that existing infrastructure may lack sufficient capacity for such volumes. New pipelines could therefore become not only commercial projects but also important components of European energy security.
Transit of Turkmen gas could also generate significant revenues for Armenia while reducing its dependence on the price of Russian gas.
“If there is transit, you receive money from that transit, and those revenues reduce your costs,” he said.
Iran Could Also Be Interested in Armenia’s Transit Potential
Khurshudyan also highlights Iran’s possible role in future regional energy infrastructure.
According to him, following the Armenian infrastructure minister’s recent visit to Iran, information emerged from the Iranian side indicating that Tehran is considering Armenia as a possible energy transit route.
The analyst argues that if Iran seeks to deliver gas to European markets, a route through Armenia and Georgia could be among the more acceptable options.
“If they were interested in entering Europe through Turkey and strengthening Turkey, they could simply say they would use Turkey — why would they need Armenia? But they have always said that Armenia and Georgia have no geopolitical ambitions and would never use gas crossing their territories as an instrument of pressure against the supplier,” Khurshudyan said.
In this logic, he believes an Iran-Armenia-Georgia-Black Sea-Europe route could be attractive to Tehran.
Khurshudyan refers to potentially very large volumes. He estimates that as much as 100 billion cubic meters of Iranian gas could eventually transit toward Europe, while Turkmen gas volumes could reach 70–80 billion cubic meters.
“These are enormous volumes. With 100 billion cubic meters, Armenia could receive between $600 million and $1 billion from transit fees alone for Iranian gas exports,” he said.
Gas Transit Could Transform Armenia’s Energy Balance
According to Khurshudyan, a possible normalization of relations between Iran and the United States could create additional opportunities for such projects.
He suggests that American oil and gas companies could eventually become interested in building and operating the necessary infrastructure.
In this context, Khurshudyan also raises the issue of ownership and management of Gazprom infrastructure in Armenia, proposing that the possibility of nationalization with appropriate compensation be considered.
A Real Opportunity for “Tectonic Change”
Khurshudyan believes that taken together, these possibilities could significantly alter Armenia’s geopolitical position.
He notes that the phrase “geopolitical tectonic changes” has often been used in recent years, but the implementation of TRIPP and related infrastructure could give the expression practical meaning.
“There really is an opportunity for tectonic change. It becomes obvious if Armenia turns into a crossroads — the ‘Crossroads of Peace’ that Ursula von der Leyen has mentioned several times, but also a logistics crossroads,” he said.
According to Khurshudyan, this would go far beyond reopening roads or railway lines. If oil and gas pipelines cross Armenian territory, the country could become an important hub in regional energy systems.
Infrastructure as an Additional Security Guarantee?
Khurshudyan also links Armenia’s potential new role to national security.
In his assessment, the greater the strategic importance of energy and transport infrastructure crossing Armenian territory, the stronger the international interest in ensuring its security.
“If those oil and gas pipelines pass through Armenia, that changes everything. Azerbaijan will not be able to entertain the prospect of attacking Armenia in the foreseeable future,” he said.
In Khurshudyan’s scenario, therefore, TRIPP is not viewed as a single railway or transport project but as the possible beginning of a much broader infrastructure transformation.
That process could include railways, highways, electricity and cable networks, oil pipelines and gas pipelines, creating new transit revenues for Armenia while fundamentally changing its economic and geopolitical significance.