A delegation led by Azerbaijani Deputy Prime Minister Shahin Mustafayev has arrived in Armenia. A day earlier, a joint commission meeting between Armenian and Turkish representatives was held in Kars. These developments have triggered renewed discussions on regional dynamics. Regional expert Armen Petrosyan offers his assessment.
Delimitation with limited expectations
According to Petrosyan, the visit is most likely linked to the continuation of the border delimitation process. He notes that many issues raised by Azerbaijan are currently tied to the upcoming elections in Armenia, contributing to uncertainty.
At the same time, he believes that commission work may continue until the elections, as preliminary agreements have already been reached. However, significant progress is unlikely.
“Substantial advancement in delimitation is difficult to expect. Some discussions may occur in the economic sphere, particularly regarding Armenian exports, but large-scale agreements remain unlikely at this stage,” he explains.
International context and signaling
Petrosyan connects the Kars meeting to upcoming major EU-related events in Armenia, where regional stability will be a central topic.
In this context, Turkey and Azerbaijan appear to be demonstrating activity to signal engagement. However, especially in Turkey’s case, the process remains largely stagnant. Previously announced steps have not translated into tangible outcomes, despite agreements dating back to 2022.
The “positive narrative” of Kars talks
According to the expert, the Turkish side presented specific steps and timelines for fulfilling its commitments. Ankara’s approach is to demonstrate progress in areas such as infrastructure, particularly railway development.
At the same time, Turkey is also sending indirect signals suggesting that Armenia still faces unresolved issues, including coordination challenges with Russia.
These discussions include railway connections, linking missing segments, and potential routes toward the Turkish border and Nakhichevan.
Conclusion
Overall, Petrosyan concludes that Turkey and Azerbaijan are taking steps that can later be used to justify their positions. At the same time, given upcoming international events in Yerevan, these actions are also aimed at shaping the agenda and are largely demonstrative in nature.