Armenia finds itself in a security vacuum: its main partner, Russia, has been lost, and no equivalent alternative has been found. This was stated by international affairs expert Armen Manvelyan.
According to him, the Armenian authorities have attempted to develop security cooperation with the United States, but with the arrival of Donald Trump, these efforts have come to naught. A similar situation is observed in relations with the European Union—no tangible results have been achieved in replacing Russia as a security partner.
“As a result, we are witnessing a shift in direction—movement toward Ankara,” Manvelyan notes. “The current government is trying to steer the country toward Turkey. In this context, there is a high likelihood that the Armenian leadership will make concessions regarding the so-called Zangezur Corridor. It is no coincidence that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently stated that the Armenian side is showing a constructive approach to discussing this issue.”
Manvelyan also pointed out that Turkey has managed to some extent to “sell” the Zangezur Corridor project to the West, particularly convincing the United States of its necessity. It is in this context that the expert views reports in the press about the alleged U.S. willingness to guarantee the route’s security.
Meanwhile, the Armenian authorities, using different wording, are trying to convince the public that this is a step aimed at economic development. However, in practice, opening the corridor under a scenario where Armenia controls neither entry nor exit on its territory represents a concession of sovereignty. And this concession, according to Armen Manvelyan, is far from the last.
The expert believes that Azerbaijan is deliberately delaying the signing of the so-called peace treaty, seeking to avoid a situation where Armenia would gain a definitive status. “Azerbaijan will drag out the process for as long as necessary to weaken Armenia as much as possible and initiate irreversible processes within it,” Manvelyan asserts.
In this context, he says, even a potential change of power in Armenia will no longer affect the country’s strategic position.