Azerbaijan’s insistence that Armenia change its Constitution as a precondition shows that Baku still seeks to delay the signing of the peace agreement, political analyst Johnny Melikyan said.
“Changing the Constitution is a precondition; they say so clearly. Yerevan’s response is that this is part of its domestic processes,” Melikyan said. In his view, recent developments suggest that the demand for constitutional change is unlikely to be the last precondition.
Why the peace agreement may be delayed
Melikyan believes Azerbaijan is trying to buy time amid a complicated geopolitical situation and postpone the signing of the peace agreement for as long as possible. “Once the peace agreement is signed and ratified, their hands will be tied by international law or by the possibility of pressure from international actors,” he said.
According to Melikyan, the longer the process continues, the more time Azerbaijan will have to observe developments in the region and beyond. He pointed in particular to the situation surrounding Iran and the Russia–Ukraine war. In his assessment, Baku hopes to benefit as much as possible from those developments.
Different understandings of peace
Melikyan also believes Armenia and Azerbaijan do not yet fully share the same understanding of peace. He argues that Azerbaijan has not abandoned its policy of using the advantage it gained through war as an instrument against Armenia. As examples, he cited the promotion of the “Western Azerbaijan” narrative and the so-called “Albanization” process, including claims made about Armenian churches.
Similar issues are now emerging in Azerbaijan’s relations with Georgia as well as with Armenia, he said. “Azerbaijan does speak about peace in its statements. But how we see peace in Armenia, and what we mean by it, is one thing; what Azerbaijan understands by the same word is another,” Melikyan said.
In his assessment, regional stability and security require the two sides’ understandings of peace to come as close together as possible.
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