Amid regional tensions, Armenia’s foreign policy finds itself in a complex and vulnerable situation. Recent events in the Middle East, including the renewed talks between Israel and Hamas in Sharm el-Sheikh, mediated by the US, Egypt, and Qatar, differ from previous ones in their scale and the international factors involved. Armenia, as a small country, must take these global changes into account, strive to maintain a balance without compromising its own interests, and find its place in the new geopolitical arena.
Recognition of Palestine: A Diplomatic Strategy
According to expert Armen Petrosyan, Armenia’s recognition of the State of Palestine was an important diplomatic step conditioned by two main factors.
“Armenia’s position in this case regarding the recognition of Palestine was shaped by two main factors. Firstly, at the time Armenia recognized it, if I’m not mistaken, it was also recognized by three or four other European countries: Iceland, Spain—if I’m not mistaken, four countries. So, there was an attempt to exert comprehensive pressure on Israel to cease military action,” he notes.
This recognition was consistent with international efforts to end Israel’s military actions. Furthermore, it contributed to strengthening Armenia’s positive image in the Islamic world, especially since Turkey and Azerbaijan had been portraying Armenia in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation since the 1990s as an aggressor and a country damaging Islamic culture.
“This recognition was a very good opportunity for Armenia, and perhaps there couldn’t have been a more opportune moment to counter the negative propaganda of Turkey and Azerbaijan and strengthen its position on the international stage,” the expert asserts.
Threats to Iran and Armenia’s Concerns
A successful conclusion of negotiations between Israel and Hamas could change the regional dynamic. Petrosyan notes:
“If the deal goes through, Israel’s full attention and energy will undoubtedly be focused on Iran. Therefore, this is certainly a healthy concern.“
The threats to Iran are linked to the failure of the nuclear agreement, as the European three have also abandoned it, and, in essence, the Iranian nuclear agreement is no longer in effect. Military scenarios are also possible in connection with preventing the nuclear program, he adds.
Israel, taking advantage of global uncertainty, could take military action against Iran, which is a serious concern for Armenia, given its proximity to the border and its economic ties with Iran.
In this context, the forecast for improved relations between Israel and Turkey, as well as intensified cooperation between Israel and Azerbaijan, create additional risks. Israel, pursuing its strategic interests, will prioritize ties with Azerbaijan, particularly in the areas of energy supplies and military cooperation.
The Need to Develop Relations with Israel
However, according to the expert, relations with Israel are extremely important for Armenia, despite the difficulties arising from Israel’s close ties with Turkey and Azerbaijan.
“Israel will strengthen its position in this region. Therefore, relations with Israel are also extremely important for Armenia,” he notes.
Furthermore, the presence of the Armenian community in Jerusalem, including the Armenian Quarter, requires active diplomacy to protect Armenian cultural and religious heritage, especially in the face of pressure from extremist groups.
In this situation, Armenia should intensify contacts with Israel, leveraging its own resources, including the Armenian diaspora:
“The newly appointed Armenian ambassador has begun meeting with representatives of the Jewish diaspora. This is extremely important for lobbying for the interests of the Republic of Armenia in the United States and stopping, or at least reducing, Israel’s lobbying efforts against Armenia.“
It is important for Armenia to utilize existing opportunities in the international arena, including ties with the Trump administration. As Petrosyan notes: “The Trump administration could become a link between Armenia and Israel.”