Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s recent statement about regaining Artsvashen and other occupied territories within the framework of border delimitation and demarcation has opened a new stage in Armenia’s domestic political debates. Political analyst Alen Ghevondyan explained what this could mean and what consequences it may have for the country.
According to him, the issue of Artsvashen is directly tied to bringing the topic of enclaves back into public discourse.
“If Armenia recognizes Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity within the borders of the former Azerbaijan SSR, it is to be expected that the three so-called Azerbaijani ‘enclaves’ will be subject to return,” Ghevondyan said.
In this context, Tigranashen becomes the main subject of “return,” holding major strategic significance for Armenia.
“From a strategic perspective, Artsvashen’s importance is secondary compared to Tigranashen, since Artsvashen is not located on a vital route. The North–South highway, Armenia’s key transportation artery, passes through Tigranashen,” he explained.
According to Ghevondyan, the process of transferring Tigranashen is already underway:
“A census has been conducted in Tigranashen, and houses have reportedly been built for the displaced families in the nearby village of Paruyr Sevak, where they are to be relocated.”
He is convinced that once the area is handed over, Azerbaijani military units will be deployed there to “secure” the territory, followed by customs and tax officers, and Azerbaijani legal jurisdiction will be established in the area.
“This means that anyone traveling to southern Armenia — to Vayots Dzor or Syunik — or returning north will have to pass through Azerbaijani territory. And it’s not even clear whether they’ll be allowed to cross, since it would be considered their land. Armenia would become a hostage to Baku’s will, which could exploit the situation to its advantage — imposing restrictions on entry and exit, conducting vehicle inspections, and detaining Armenian citizens under false pretenses, possibly taking them to unknown locations, unless a bypass road is built,” Ghevondyan warned.
He believes that handing over Tigranashen would effectively split the Republic of Armenia into two disconnected parts.
According to him, if the current government is re-elected in 2026, Tigranashen will inevitably be surrendered — unless a major regional war intervenes.
“This territorial exchange will take place after the 2026 elections, because it’s obvious that for the current prime minister, such a move before the elections would be politically disastrous,” the analyst concluded.