The competition surrounding regional communication routes may appear economic at first glance, but in reality, it is part of a broader struggle for geopolitical and military dominance. This is the view of Iranian international relations expert Ehsan Movahedian.
According to him, attempts by Israel, Turkey, and Azerbaijan to create the so-called “fake Zangezur Corridor” failed due to Iran’s resistance, and now they have turned to the United States, advancing the so-called “Trump Road” plan. Although this plan formally respects Armenia’s territorial integrity, the expert warns that its real consequences could be dangerous for both Iran and Armenia.
Deepening U.S. Economic and Military-Political Presence
Movahedian notes that the U.S. presence in Armenia would mean its direct presence near Iran’s borders, which would disrupt Iran’s security environment, effectively lead to its geopolitical encirclement, and push Iran out of regional energy and freight transportation routes.
“The Americans are also trying to create a pathway for NATO-affiliated jihadist and separatist forces to appear near Iran’s borders,” he emphasizes, adding that such a threat could emerge through the U.S. presence in Azerbaijan and Armenia.
According to the expert, the format of the Zangezur Corridor project has changed only superficially: “The essence of the overall idea remains the same; it has simply been given a different appearance due to Iranian resistance.”
Risks of Controlling Customs and Communication Systems
Movahedian highlights another problematic issue: the potential U.S. access to Armenia’s customs and information infrastructure. Since Armenia is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), such control would allow the U.S. to access the EAEU’s trade data, which would also mean a leak of Iran’s trade information.
Furthermore, U.S. integration into Armenia’s customs and border systems would enable Americans to monitor the border crossings of Iranian citizens, which is “unacceptable to Tehran.”
The expert stresses that this process is dangerous not only for Iran but also for Armenia’s stability. According to him, the U.S. is attempting to turn Armenia into “another Georgia or Ukraine,” a frontline for U.S.-Russia confrontation.
The Corridor as a Link in the Global Chain of Iran’s Encirclement
Movahedian asserts: “Iran’s position on the creation of the fake Zangezur Corridor is consistent and unwavering.” Tehran has repeatedly stated that a corridor without Armenia’s sovereign control is unacceptable to Iran.
In his assessment, such a corridor would “encircle from within” both Iran and Armenia, threatening the national interests of both countries. “If Armenia loses its border with Iran, its chances of survival would be nearly zero,” the expert says.
From Iran’s perspective, the so-called Zangezur Corridor is not just a regional project but part of a broader geopolitical strategy of creating a corridor system that bypasses Iran. Movahedian recalls that China, India, Central Asian countries, and others are trying to establish transportation routes to Europe and North Africa.
At the same time, Israel is attempting to “become Iran’s neighbor” by penetrating southern Syria and then Iraqi Kurdistan, linking to the Zangezur Corridor. “If this fake corridor becomes a reality, Israel will gain an incentive to attack Iran again,” he warns.
There is already a significant Israeli military presence in Azerbaijan, along with stable intelligence cooperation between Baku and Tel Aviv. The Zangezur Corridor would “further facilitate and deepen” this connection.
Russia’s Declining Role and Miscalculations
Speaking about Russia’s changing role, the expert notes that Moscow’s influence in the South Caucasus has significantly diminished, primarily due to the war in Ukraine.
However, he believes the issue is not limited to this: “Russia was mistaken in thinking it could contain the aggressive agendas of Turkey, Baku, Israel, the United Kingdom, and the U.S. through cooperation.”
Movahedian says Russia realized too late that the West’s goal was to encircle it in the Caucasus and Central Asia, and that Turkey and Baku were merely parts of a puzzle designed by the U.S. and the U.K.
The expert recalls that Russia allowed Azerbaijan to seize Armenian territories, expecting that in return, Baku would permit Russia to secretly export sanctioned oil and gas. However, Baku took advantage of the situation, becoming a factor of influence over Russia and imposing its demands on Moscow.
“The infiltration of mafia groups linked to Aliyev reached such a level that Putin was forced to intervene in Russia’s internal security and economic spheres,” the expert notes.
In Movahedian’s view, the U.S. is now trying to turn each of the three South Caucasus countries into an anti-Russian platform through significant economic, political, and security investments.
“If Russia does not intervene urgently and decisively, the U.S.’s military-political presence here will become irreversible,” he concludes.