Since the Second Karabakh War, a paradigm shift has been observed in the South Caucasus region, which for years relied on a stable formula: pro-Russian Armenia, pro-Western Georgia, and relatively neutral Azerbaijan, according to Wojciech Górecki, an expert at the Center for Eastern Studies (Warsaw).
He notes that today, Armenia is “increasingly boldly declaring its desire to join the Western community, with signals coming from Yerevan indicating that Armenia aspires to become a member of the European Union in the future. This rapprochement is becoming more evident. There are also signals from the West that it is always open.” On the other hand, he continues, Armenia remains a member of post-Soviet integration frameworks led by Russia, “though it has not participated in Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) meetings or, for over a year, in the post-Soviet NATO equivalent, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), but formally remains a participant in these formats.” As for Georgia, it still lacks diplomatic relations with Russia, and it is hard to imagine their restoration after Russia recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in 2008, Górecki believes.
“Nevertheless, there is a drift toward Russia. It is unclear how intense it is or whether this policy shift objectively brings the country closer to Moscow in various aspects. This includes economic rapprochement, increased frequency of direct flights between cities of the two countries, or the adoption of legal acts reminiscent of laws in force in the Russian Federation. Nonetheless, Georgia remains a candidate for EU membership. The Georgian Constitution still states that the country’s goal is membership in the EU and NATO,” the expert emphasized.
The analyst considers the cooling of relations between Baku and Moscow to be the most interesting development in the region.
“Currently, two states in the region are distancing themselves from Russia—Armenia and Azerbaijan. Georgia also lacks warm relations with Russia, having no diplomatic ties with it. Additionally, there is the unresolved Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict,” he said, noting that the situation in the region is not entirely clear-cut.
Nevertheless, he is confident that in a few years, the Caucasus will be different. “Although… it is already different because Turkey has emerged as a very important player, which wasn’t the case before. Therefore, the Caucasus is evolving, but to say we have a pro-Russian Georgia or a pro-Western Armenia… it’s not that straightforward,” he said.
The analyst points to Iran’s role in the region, which is the strongest advocate for maintaining the status quo in the South Caucasus.
“A weakening of Iran’s position could facilitate an agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the ‘Zangezur Corridor’—a land connection between mainland Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan, extending to Turkey. An agreement on such transit exists, but Azerbaijan wanted it to operate outside Armenian control, while Armenians cited their country’s territorial integrity and could not agree to the extraterritoriality of this road section. Iran supported Armenia’s position. In a situation where Iran’s resistance weakens, various solutions become possible,” Górecki said, recalling agreements on transferring the Armenian section of the road to the management of an American company.
The expert considers reaching an agreement on the corridor a key point for a final peace deal. On other issues, Górecki is confident that “the parties seem to have already reached an agreement, including on amending the preamble to Armenia’s Constitution.”
If developments follow this logic, he believes, the result will be a “Caucasus with less Russia.” However, he continues, if Georgia becomes too close to Russia and Russia maintains its presence in the region, all these trans-Caucasian projects could be called into question.
According to Górecki’s assessments, a process is steadily underway in the region aimed at creating conditions for Armenia and Azerbaijan to reach an agreement without Russia’s or even Brussels’ involvement. “There will be more Turkey, less Iran, and more West in the region. More West because it is distant and cautious, and the West will not provide security guarantees to Armenia. Thus, after an Armenian-Azerbaijani agreement, it will be important for Armenia to reach an agreement with Turkey, with which contacts exist despite the lack of diplomatic relations,” the expert noted on Wnet, adding that this will be the final piece of the puzzle.
“If Armenian-Turkish relations are established, the mosaic will be complete, and Turkey will become a full-fledged player present in all three countries, routes through Armenia will be unblocked, and history will move forward. We’ll see… at least today, processes are heading in this direction.”
Górecki bases his forecasts partly on changes in Armenia’s foreign policy and the theses declared by the country’s leadership. The analyst highlights that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has a concept in which he contrasts the “real Armenia” with both the “mythical Armenia” of folk legends and the “post-colonial Armenia.” As he emphasizes, Armenia’s authorities are building their own narrative—”history is now being written from Yerevan’s perspective, not Moscow’s.“