In 2026, the five-year term of the current Armenian government’s program comes to an end. With only one budget year left, the authorities face the challenge of fulfilling the populist social promises made in 2021. Tatevos Avetisyan, a deputy from the “Armenia” bloc, shares a similar view.
Promises vs. Reality
According to the government’s 2021–2026 program, by 2026, the authorities pledged to:
- Raise the minimum pension to the level of the food basket cost,
- Increase the average pension to the level of the minimum consumer basket,
- Raise the minimum wage to 85,000 AMD.
However, official statistics indicate that these goals remain unattainable.
The average pension for approximately 500,000 pensioners is currently 49,000 AMD, while the minimum consumer basket is estimated at 81,681 AMD. Moreover, the average size of newly assigned pensions is declining due to shorter work histories: in 2024, it amounted to about 43,000 AMD. Around 35% of pensioners live below the poverty line and receive need-based allowances.
Approximately 100,000 citizens with less than 10 years of work experience receive old-age or disability pensions, averaging 36,500 AMD per month.
To fulfill its promises, the government would need to increase the average pension by about 67% and the minimum pension by 21% in the next year (the food basket cost is 44,152 AMD).
Reduction in Allowance Recipients
The number of families receiving social allowances has decreased by about 40% under the current government, down to 60,752 families, despite the poverty rate remaining largely unchanged. In 65% of these families, children are present. The average allowance is 36,600 AMD, which is roughly 2.5 times less than the cost of the minimum consumer basket per person.
The minimum wage also lags behind the promised level, falling 7,000 AMD short of the consumer basket cost. To meet the pledge, it would need to increase by at least 14% (approximately 10,000 AMD).
Modest Measures Instead of Systemic Solutions
Amid unfulfilled promises, the government plans to increase the maximum cashback for non-cash pension payments by only 4,000 AMD in 2026. However, this cashback does not apply to utility bills, which constitute a significant portion of pensioners’ expenses. In practice, nearly half of pensioners and allowance recipients do not benefit from this scheme.
Thus, even for those who receive cashback, the average pension may increase by a maximum of 4,000 AMD, or about 8%. Meanwhile, the original promises envisioned a growth of at least 67%.
Promises Will Remain Unfulfilled
After four years of systematically postponed deadlines and unrealized reforms, it is evident that the government’s social promises will not be met. The approved 2026 budget draft lacks any real mechanisms to achieve them.
For 40% of the country’s most vulnerable citizens—pensioners, low-income families, the working poor, and the extremely poor—this means a continued decline in living standards amid persistent inflation and stagnant incomes.