In recent days, noteworthy—if not telling—statements have been made regarding the unblocking of communications and the opening of roads in the region. First and foremost, after meeting with the President of Kazakhstan, Ilham Aliyev announced that Azerbaijan has lifted restrictions on the transit of goods toward Armenia. According to the statement, the first cargo shipment that could be carried out through Azerbaijani territory will be Kazakh wheat. In parallel with this topic, Nikol Pashinyan stated that, starting today, Armenia is ready to ensure the transit of trucks from Turkey to Azerbaijan and back via the Margara–Yeghegnadzor–Sisian–Goris route.
What processes are taking place in the region, and what subtext do these statements carry? Expert on international affairs Grigor Balasanyan shares his observations.
Kazakh Wheat — An Alternative?
According to Balasanyan, in recent days there has been much talk that the transit of Kazakh wheat through Azerbaijani territory could become Armenia’s “second gateway to salvation.” However, as the expert noted, the real picture is entirely different.
“First, we must acknowledge a fact: in 2024, Kazakhstan ranked 14th among wheat-producing countries, and in 2025, production and exports decreased by 38% compared to 2024,” he said. Balasanyan also recalled that the Kazakh government has decided to limit or nearly halt wheat exports until 2050, prioritizing domestic demand.
Under these conditions, in his view, claiming that Kazakhstan could become a real alternative to Russian wheat is, at the very least, naive. “Russia has held first place among wheat producers for the third consecutive year, while delivering Kazakh wheat to Armenia would be several times more expensive from a logistical standpoint than Russian wheat,” he emphasized.
Aliyev’s Manipulation with the “Bread of Salvation”
The expert further explained that Kazakh wheat reaches Baku by sea, then by rail along the Baku–Akhalkalaki–Kars route, and subsequently via Georgia’s Black Sea ports. “In other words, transit costs are doubled: transit fees are paid multiple times, whereas wheat from Russia is delivered directly to Armenia—straight from the Krasnodar region,” Balasanyan noted.
In his words, if it is truly necessary to import wheat from Kazakhstan, this can be done without Azerbaijan’s involvement: supplies can be organized from the Kazakhstan–Russia border area via Astrakhan and delivered to Armenia through Lars.
“This would deprive Aliyev of the opportunity to declare at every convenient—and inconvenient—moment that he is supposedly delivering the ‘bread of salvation’ to Armenia,” the expert said. He is convinced that the topic of Kazakh wheat delivery is more manipulative and exploited for political purposes than a genuine economic initiative.
Legal Obstacles and Signs of Haste
Speaking about the Armenian Prime Minister’s statement regarding the transit of Azerbaijani and Turkish cargo, Balasanyan emphasized that unblocking roads and communication routes is in itself positive, but the process must be carried out on the basis of clear agreements.
“Before taking practical steps, it is necessary to sign separate trade and customs agreements with Azerbaijan and Turkey,” he noted, adding that without such agreements, no free transit can be implemented.
According to Balasanyan, the entry of Turkish and Azerbaijani goods into Armenia also means their entry into the EAEU customs territory, which implies payments for third countries.
“The question arises: are Turkey and Azerbaijan prepared to make these payments? If not, how will we explain this to our EAEU partners?” he stressed.
He reminded that Armenia receives approximately 1.32% of the EAEU’s unified budget annually, and in such cases, it is necessary to clarify the procedure for making payments.
In his opinion, this process is complex and multilayered, and its implementation requires thorough preparation:
“At present, there are not even customs checkpoints on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. It is unclear where the Armenian border guard will stand, what area will be considered a neutral zone, and whether this will be acceptable to Azerbaijan. These issues still need to be coordinated,” he noted.
In conclusion, Balasanyan stated that haste in this matter is unacceptable. The process must proceed on the basis of clear legal and political foundations.