Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has absolutely no intention of making peace irreversible—at least not with the current territorial configuration of the Republic of Armenia. This is the view of former Prime Minister of Armenia Khosrov Harutyunyan.
“I am deeply convinced, and I can substantiate my words: for Aliyev, peace in relations with Armenia means a situation in which Armenia as a geopolitical actor in the region is reduced to zero. After August 8, it is impossible to find any subtext in his statements that would indicate a genuine pursuit of real peace,” Harutyunyan noted.
The recent absence of border incidents, he continued, does not yet indicate the possibility of establishing peace.
“After the Dushanbe meeting, no incidents were recorded on the borders for a long time, yet it all ended with the 44-day war.
Peace can become irreversible if systems of relations, shaped by various factors, are established between hostile states—systems that deter either side from the temptation to use force or the threat of force to gain unilateral advantages. In other words, peace becomes irreversible only when, for either party, achieving success through military means ceases to be an attractive option because potential losses may outweigh expected gains.
Consequently, the absence of border incidents does not yet signify the irreversibility of peace—especially when, in the Sotk-Khoznavar sector and, since November, all the way to Meghri, all strategic heights remain under the military control of the adversary. Under such conditions, the lack of border incidents cannot be regarded as an opportunity for institutional settlement,” Harutyunyan emphasized.
As for Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s statement on lifting the ban on cargo transportation to Armenia, Harutyunyan believes this move was aimed solely at facilitating the reproduction of Armenia’s current government in the upcoming elections. “I believe the elections will be snap rather than regular. There is haste in this process on both Aliyev’s and Pashinyan’s sides. They fully understand that the course of events depends on them,” Harutyunyan concluded.