The situation in the Middle East surrounding Iran is becoming increasingly uncertain by the day. Diplomatic rhetoric in Tehran–Washington relations is steadily hardening, while the growing military presence in the Persian Gulf further deepens the risk of war. According to international affairs expert Davit Karapetyan, the sides have effectively entered a phase of “cold war,” in which any miscalculation could escalate into an open military confrontation.
A Call for Restraint to Washington
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has stated that the continuation of negotiations depends on an assessment of the United States’ “seriousness.” In the expert’s view, this is a diplomatic call for restraint addressed to Washington, which in recent months has increasingly relied on ultimatum-style and aggressive rhetoric rather than classical diplomatic tools.
In recent weeks, the US military presence in the Persian Gulf has been significantly expanded. American aircraft carrier strike groups, including the USS Abraham Lincoln, as well as B-52 strategic bombers, are currently deployed in the region. According to Karapetyan, this is a direct signal that the use of military force could at any moment shift from a theoretical option to a practical step.
At the same time, Iran has repeatedly stated that it will not initiate a first strike, but that any act of aggression will inevitably be met with retaliation. Moreover, Tehran has openly indicated that all US military bases in the region could become targets of a counterstrike.
Negotiations or a “Deal for the Sake of a Deal”?
A paradoxical situation has emerged: the United States demands that Iran completely abandon uranium enrichment, while Iran considers this issue a non-negotiable principle. Under these circumstances, a logical question arises — what are the parties actually negotiating about?
According to the expert, a deep-rooted contradiction exists for which there are currently no mechanisms of compromise. As a result, a situation has taken shape that can be described as a cold war: there are no open hostilities, but an arms race, constant threats, and demonstrations of force are clearly present.
Likelihood of War in the Coming Days
Karapetyan does not rule out the possibility of limited, demonstrative military actions in the coming days, without escalation into a full-scale war. However, a prolonged conflict would not serve US interests, especially given that Iran has significantly strengthened its defensive and technological capabilities in recent years.
In addition, the involvement of Iran’s allies — Russia and China — further complicates the situation, increasing the military and political risks for Washington.
Iran’s Messages to Baku and Regional Calculations
According to the expert, the Iranian defense minister’s harsh warnings to Azerbaijan were both a signal and a warning. Tehran made it clear that it would not tolerate the use of Azerbaijani territory in any form for military actions against Iran.
Similar suspicions had arisen during previous conflicts, and although the issue did not then escalate publicly, this time Iran has sent an unequivocal message: it may not be so forgiving a second time.