The processes surrounding Iran are not over, and the situation in the region remains extremely tense. This was stated by political analyst Armen Ayvazyan while commenting on recent developments in the Middle East.
According to him, despite ongoing discussions about a ceasefire, the United States has significantly increased its military presence in the region over the past two to three weeks.
“Additional missiles, various military assets, aircraft, and most importantly, ground troops have also been deployed,” Ayvazyan stated.
In his opinion, this may indicate preparations for a possible limited ground operation.
Possible targets and risks of escalation
According to the political analyst, it is still difficult to determine where such an operation could take place.
He noted that the targets could include islands located in the Strait of Hormuz as well as possible attempts to seize Iran’s enriched uranium reserves.
Ayvazyan believes that the end of the conflict is still far away and that a new large-scale confrontation could begin at any moment, affecting other countries in the region as well.
According to him, if the war erupts again, it will be much harsher because Iran’s main military targets have already been struck.
“There are almost no additional military targets left now. What remains are civilian infrastructures — power plants, factories, water treatment, and desalination facilities,” he said.
The political analyst is convinced that if such strikes hit Iranian infrastructure, Tehran will quickly retaliate against infrastructure targets across the entire region.
Regional oil infrastructure may become a target
Ayvazyan also stated that the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan oil pipeline could become one of the targets.
According to him, around 50% of Israel’s imported oil passes through this pipeline.
“If a new confrontation begins, the entire Middle East will descend into chaos,” he warned.
Ayvazyan added that Iran could strike the infrastructure of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates.
The political analyst also emphasized that time is limited because extreme summer heat begins in the region as early as June, potentially complicating ground military operations.
“If serious operations are to take place, especially ground operations, they must happen within the next two to three weeks,” Ayvazyan concluded.