The latest negotiations between Iran and the United States held in Geneva are being assessed in diplomatic circles as a stage where “progress has been recorded.” However, as noted by Gohar Iskandaryan, Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the National Academy of Sciences, the process is accompanied by growing military tension, raising questions about the real goals of the negotiations.
Talks amid growing military presence
According to Iskandaryan, both the Iranian and US sides emphasize in official statements that they are able to find points of cooperation during the negotiations and move forward. Diplomats, especially after the second round, describe the process as intensive and effective.
At the same time, the United States has significantly increased its military presence in the Persian Gulf. According to Iskandaryan, about 50 units of modern military aircraft — including F-35, F-22 and F-16 — as well as aircraft carriers have been concentrated in the region. In her assessment, since the Iraq war the US has not concentrated such a scale of forces in the Persian Gulf. This, the expert says, is a clear instrument of pressure on Tehran.
Key disagreement: uranium enrichment
Iskandaryan notes that the central issue of the negotiations remains Iran’s nuclear program. The United States insists that Iran should not have a nuclear program at all and should not enrich uranium. Iran, in turn, refers to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, stressing that as a signatory it has the right to enrich uranium within a peaceful nuclear program.
Recalling the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed in 2015, Iskandaryan notes that under the agreement Iran committed to enrich uranium up to a maximum of 3.5%. However, in 2017 former US President Donald Trump withdrew from the deal, calling it “a useless piece of paper.”
According to the expert, this question is at the core of the current negotiations — whether Iran can continue limited uranium enrichment or whether Washington will insist on a complete halt.
“Red lines” and regional pressure
Iskandaryan is convinced that neither side is ready to cross its “red lines.” Iran has previously stated clearly that it will not abandon not only its peaceful nuclear program but also its missile program, considering it an important component of national security. Although the US side is not currently pushing the missile issue with the same emphasis, the main contradiction remains the nuclear issue.
In the expert’s assessment, the extreme tension in the region and the demonstration of military power aim to exert maximum pressure in order to extract concessions. According to her, the military buildup by the United States effectively sends a message to Tehran: either an agreement on Washington’s terms or a military scenario.
At the same time, Israel has also become more active, stating that it is ready to support the United States if a decision is made to resolve the issue by military means.
According to Gohar Iskandaryan, at this stage the negotiations are in a complex and contradictory situation: publicly there is talk of progress, but parallel military preparations indicate that the parties continue to consider the use-of-force option as well.