In the context of regional railway projects, a new competitive environment is emerging, where Armenia’s positions directly depend on the modernization of its own infrastructure. This was stated by political scientist Emil Ordukhanyan, emphasizing that delays by Armenia in this matter could lead to serious problems in the unblocking process.
Competition Between Regional Railway Projects
According to him, Turkey is actively building the Kars–Iğdır–Nakhijevan railway, planned for completion by 2028–2030. This is a state-of-the-art line that will enable higher speeds and increased freight transport efficiency. Against this backdrop, as per the political scientist, two competing projects are taking shape.
One is the route that could pass through Armenian territory via Yeraskh–Gyumri–Kars, while the other goes through Nakhijevan to Iğdır and Kars, fully bypassing Armenia. “If we fail to restore and modernize our railway infrastructure, it means that connectivity to Nakhijevan will continue not via Yeraskh to Gyumri and Kars, but along the Nakhijevan–Iğdır direction, completely bypassing that section of Armenia,” Ordukhanyan noted.
Levers of Influence and Limitation of Armenia’s Importance
In the political scientist’s assessment, such a development could benefit actors interested in reducing Armenia’s transit significance. According to him, Russia understands the logic of these processes and could use the infrastructure modernization issue as a lever to limit Armenia’s role. If the route passes through Armenia’s sovereign territory only via TRIPP and then continues to Nakhijevan and Turkey, Armenia’s strategic importance will be limited to that segment alone. In this case, given Turkey’s logistical capabilities, Ankara itself would assume a much larger role.
Ordukhanyan recalls that Turkey long ago began its railway project, whereas Armenia has only recently started discussing the need for railway modernization. In his view, Russia views this infrastructure as a factor of strategic importance, and the modernization issue extends beyond a purely technical level.
Priority of Border Opening
The political scientist also points out that if the Yeraskh–Kars railway line is not modernized and freight is organized via the Meghri section to Nakhijevan, opening the Armenia–Turkey border may no longer be seen by Ankara as a top priority.
“If the border does not function in railway terms, it becomes possible to reduce the importance that Armenia had gained within transit projects,” he emphasized. In Ordukhanyan’s opinion, by obstructing control and modernization of infrastructure, it is possible to maintain political and military influence, including border presence. He recalls that previously, management of Armenia’s strategic infrastructure turned into a tool of political influence.
The Issue of Competitiveness in Unblocking
According to the political scientist, the faster Armenia can restore and modernize its infrastructure, the sooner it will ensure its competitiveness in the context of regional communication projects, including against the Kars–Nakhchivan railway being built by Turkey. In his assessment, the Nakhijevan direction is advantageous for Turkey; otherwise, that railway would not be constructed.
If Armenia cannot fully utilize its transit opportunities, the country’s importance will be limited to just a few kilometers, and prospects for economic unblocking may remain controllable. Ordukhanyan stressed that in the current situation, rapid infrastructure modernization is becoming not only an economic but also a strategic priority for Armenia.