Recent information leaks, political developments, and the course of the election campaign suggest that the electoral contest is far more intense than the authorities are trying to portray. This view was expressed by political strategist Karen Kocharyan.
According to him, government claims that victory in the elections is virtually guaranteed do not reflect the actual political situation.
Public Sentiment Shifted After the Campaign Reached Major Cities
Kocharyan believes that during the early phase of the campaign, when Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan mainly visited regional communities, confidence within the ruling camp remained high.
However, the atmosphere changed once the campaign moved to Yerevan, Gyumri, and other major urban centers.
The political strategist argues that both public opinion and attitudes within government circles began to shift at that stage. He notes that political confrontations, tensions, incidents, and attempts to create an atmosphere of fear became increasingly visible.
In his assessment, the latest rally of the “Strong Armenia” alliance became a turning point after which the authorities moved toward tougher actions, including arrests and searches.
The World Is Operating Under “No-Rules” Politics
Kocharyan argues that international politics increasingly resembles a system of “no-rules competition.”
He points to various political developments around the world and says that international norms are often applied selectively.
In such circumstances, he believes that unconventional scenarios surrounding Armenia cannot be ruled out.
No Scenario Can Be Completely Excluded
According to Kocharyan, the current geopolitical environment makes it impossible to dismiss any potential outcome.
He suggests that even if the opposition collectively wins the elections, international actors could still challenge or refuse to recognize the results.
At the same time, he says that alternative scenarios are equally possible.
For this reason, he argues that predicting political developments with certainty has become increasingly difficult.
A New Phase Begins After June 8
Summarizing his assessment, Kocharyan stated that Armenia will enter a new political phase after June 8 regardless of the election outcome.
In his view, the country will face a political reality that differs significantly from the environment that existed before the vote.
“On June 8 we will face a different reality from the one that existed on June 7. It is difficult to predict exactly what that reality will look like, but many indicators suggest that change is inevitable,” he concluded.