The escalation of the conflict between Iran and the United States is raising new military, political and economic concerns. According to experts, the hostilities are gradually becoming more than a confrontation between two countries and are developing into a process affecting global energy security and regional stability.
Iran Seeks Full Control Over the Strait of Hormuz
Iran expert Vardan Voskanyan argues that Tehran has effectively transformed its conflict with the United States into a struggle for control over the Strait of Hormuz.
According to him, Iran is conducting offensive operations to secure full control over this strategically vital maritime route, which it did not possess before the 40-day war.
Voskanyan says Iranian forces carried out one of their largest attacks against US military infrastructure stationed in Bahrain, while the skies above Oman’s capital witnessed an unprecedented display of Iranian missile launches.
He believes Tehran will use its full capabilities to establish complete control over the Strait of Hormuz and is unwilling to make concessions on the issue.
The United States Has No Exit Strategy
Former head of Armenia’s State Revenue Committee Davit Ananyan, citing assessments by The Economist, says the war against Iran has become not only a foreign policy dead end for Donald Trump but also a serious domestic political burden.
According to him, Americans see no clear objective, measurable outcome or realistic path out of the conflict.
Ananyan argues that ordinary Americans are no longer primarily debating whether the war will end in victory or defeat. Instead, they increasingly believe it will be prolonged and that the administration has no strategy for ending it.
In his assessment, this reflects a deeper crisis of public trust than simple opposition to the war.
A Prolonged War Also Threatens Armenia
Addressing the possible consequences for Armenia, Ananyan says a prolonged US-Iran war would increase the risks of internal instability in Iran, disruption of southern transport routes, higher shipping and fuel costs, and changes in the balance of power across the South Caucasus.
Such developments are particularly important for Armenia.
Iran remains one of the few neighboring countries with which Armenia maintains an open land border. The southern route plays a central role in the country’s foreign trade and transport connectivity.
Any disruption along this corridor would affect the supply of goods, logistics costs and energy prices.
A Weaker Iran Would Reshape the South Caucasus
Prolonged instability in Iran would inevitably affect the entire South Caucasus.
The weakening of one of the region’s principal actors could alter the existing balance of power, intensify competition among external centers of influence and create new security challenges.
Under such conditions, the consequences of the conflict would no longer remain limited to the confrontation between Washington and Tehran.
They would acquire broader geopolitical and economic significance, affecting neighboring states, including Armenia.
The future course of the conflict therefore carries not only foreign policy implications for Yerevan but also direct economic and security consequences.