Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has set a goal of signing and ratifying a peace treaty with Azerbaijan by 2031. The prospect of completing the process has thus again been framed within his government’s term. Although the agreement was initialled in Washington and both sides say peace has been established, the timing of its formal signing remains unclear. Why is the treaty being considered on such a long timeline? Is it because fundamental disagreements remain unresolved, or because political factors are preventing the process from moving faster?
Political analyst Davit Petrosyan believes the main obstacle is Azerbaijan’s lack of interest in accelerating the peace process. In his assessment, a quick signing would not serve Baku’s interests. He links that view to the military balance and the gains Azerbaijan has made in recent years.
“Until August 8, 2025, Azerbaijan was convinced that it could gain more from Armenia by military means than through negotiations,” Petrosyan says.
He recalls that before the agreements reached in Washington, Azerbaijan, in his assessment, carried out ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh and took full control of the region. Azerbaijani troops also entered Armenia’s sovereign territory at least three times and occupied strategic heights.
Petrosyan believes the August 8 agreements halted that advance. Baku, however, may still believe it can obtain more through military pressure than at the negotiating table.
At the same time, he does not rule out the possibility that delaying the treaty’s signing also suits Armenia’s authorities.
Petrosyan recalls that before the previous election, Pashinyan warned that war would follow if his party failed to win a constitutional majority. No war followed. The analyst nevertheless believes the warning influenced some voters and that the same argument could be used in the next election.
He sees another difficulty for the government: public demands will change after a peace treaty is signed. Until then, the government can place the question of peace and war at the centre of the political agenda. After a signing, citizens are likely to pay more attention to living standards, transport and economic conditions.
“The authorities know that they have not been particularly successful in addressing these issues. We could therefore find ourselves in a situation where Civil Contract itself has an interest in the peace treaty not being signed soon,” Petrosyan says.
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