Russia does not regard Armenia as a sovereign state and wants to return it to a position resembling that of Belarus, political analyst Stepan Grigoryan says. He made the assessment while discussing Armenia-Russia relations, Yerevan’s foreign policy and recent talks with the Russian side.
In his view, Moscow therefore has an interest in seeing Armenia’s efforts to open regional links fail. Open borders and transport connections with Türkiye and Azerbaijan would reduce Russia’s influence over Armenia, he argues. Grigoryan says the Armenian authorities should assess the logic of Russian policy clearly and stop expecting positive gestures or concessions to change Moscow’s attitude towards Yerevan. “Russia’s policy towards us will not change. It is negative and will remain negative,” he said.
Russia previously viewed Armenia as its outpost, Grigoryan argues. Now that Armenia is trying to make decisions independently, he believes Moscow wants to restore the earlier relationship. Under what he describes as Russia’s approach, Armenia should have no alternatives or freedom to choose its own foreign policy direction.
In this context, Grigoryan says, constructive proposals, appeals to mutual interests and efforts to improve relations with Russia will not yield sufficient results.
Opening regional links would reduce Russian influence
Grigoryan believes opening Armenia’s regional transport links could substantially change the balance of power. He says their partial opening has already had a positive effect on economic activity: tourist flows have increased, some trade links with Azerbaijan have become more active and, in his assessment, growth in the budget points to a more active economy.
He does not rule out progress towards opening the border with Türkiye soon, citing recent statements and hints from the Armenian authorities. If that happens, he believes the need for a Russian military base in Armenia will again come into question, as normalised relations with Türkiye would change the security environment. “That is why Russia does not want the opening of these links,” Grigoryan said.
He also pointed to discussions about Armenia’s railway connections. According to the political analyst, statements from the Russian side did not mention repairs to the Akhurik–Gyumri section or restoration of the line from Yeraskh towards Nakhchivan. Armenian officials, meanwhile, have expressed a willingness to finance the work, he said.
Grigoryan asks how rail services towards Azerbaijan and Türkiye could operate in the future if those sections are not restored. In his assessment, the absence of such work could also hinder the Crossroads of Peace project.
Clear decisions instead of manoeuvring with Russia
Grigoryan criticised the Armenian authorities’ approach. At one point, he said, they try to strengthen relations with the European Union and advance European integration; at another, they send positive signals to Russia.
He warned that Moscow might see those signals as an attempt to obtain economic concessions. One possible objective, he said, is the removal of restrictions on Armenian exports to the Russian market. Armenian officials may hope that positive steps towards Moscow will lead Russia to lift those restrictions, but Grigoryan believes that expectation will not be met.
Russia’s policy has several layers, he said, and it would be a mistake to underestimate Moscow’s actions instead of assessing them seriously. According to Grigoryan, some in Armenia’s political leadership appear to think they can manipulate Russia or change its position by sending positive signals. He puts the likelihood of success at almost zero.
Moscow could set conditions
In Grigoryan’s view, the visits to Armenia by the head of Russian Railways and Rosatom chief Alexey Likhachev were attempts to establish Yerevan’s position. He speculates that Russian President Vladimir Putin may use the outcome of those meetings to decide whether a meeting with Nikol Pashinyan is worthwhile.
The political analyst does not rule out Moscow setting conditions for a high-level meeting. Possible conditions, he said, include choosing a Russian proposal for a new nuclear power plant, resolving the issue of railway management, publicly abandoning European integration and releasing pro-Russian politicians.
Grigoryan says Armenia should speak to Russia more openly and state its own demands clearly. On the railway concession, for example, Armenia could propose that Russia give up management and transfer it to Kazakhstan. Alternatively, Armenia could reimburse Russian investments in exchange for bringing its railways back under Armenian management.
The political analyst believes Armenia should make clear that Russia is a partner, while the status of strategic partner can no longer be assumed automatically. Yerevan’s aim, he said, should be to defend its interests clearly, without setting out to offend Moscow.
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