Discussions about replacing Russian gas supplies to Armenia are largely political rhetoric and do not reflect practical realities, according to former Armenian Prime Minister Khosrov Harutyunyan.
He argues that Armenia does not currently have a realistic alternative capable of replacing Russian gas imports within the next two to three years.
Election-Time Speculation
Harutyunyan believes that claims about future gas deliveries through Azerbaijan are primarily linked to political narratives.
According to him, Azerbaijan lacks sufficient additional gas reserves to simultaneously meet growing European demand and supply Armenia with meaningful volumes.
He argues that public perceptions of Azerbaijan’s gas potential are often exaggerated.
Limited Export Capacity
The former prime minister estimates Azerbaijan’s annual export capacity at roughly 20–25 billion cubic meters.
About 10 billion cubic meters are supplied to Turkey, around 8 billion to Italy, and approximately one billion cubic meters each to Bulgaria and Greece.
In his view, this leaves little room for major new export commitments.
Challenges for Turkmen Gas
Harutyunyan is also skeptical about the possibility of transporting Turkmen gas through Azerbaijan.
He notes that such a project would require a pipeline across the Caspian Sea, creating significant political and legal challenges.
According to him, unresolved issues concerning Caspian resources and the positions of Russia and Iran make such a project highly uncertain.
Iran Requires New Infrastructure
The former prime minister argues that expanding gas imports from Iran would also face serious obstacles.
He points out that the existing Armenia-Iran gas pipeline was not designed to handle substantially larger volumes.
As a result, meaningful increases in imports would require major investments in new infrastructure.
No Immediate Alternative
Harutyunyan maintains that if Russia were to raise gas prices, Armenia would have limited options in the short term.
He believes no practical replacement exists within the next several years.
For that reason, he argues that policymakers and the public should realistically assess the economic consequences of potential disruptions.
Lessons From the Energy Crisis
Drawing on his experience during the energy crisis of the early 1990s, Harutyunyan warns that energy shortages or major price increases could have broad economic consequences.
Higher energy costs would increase production expenses, reduce business competitiveness, and weaken household purchasing power.
He stresses that his assessment is not intended to create fear but to highlight what he considers a realistic economic risk.