Turkey’s political leadership repeatedly declares its readiness to normalize relations with Armenia, yet in practice continues to implement long-term projects that suggest the opposite. This opinion was expressed by political analyst Manvel Sargsyan.
According to him, Ankara continues to build regional infrastructure and transportation projects while bypassing Armenia.
Sargsyan noted that the TRIPP project was widely viewed as a major opportunity for regional connectivity and the reduction of Armenia’s isolation. However, Turkey quickly moved forward with the construction of the new Kars–Nakhichevan route instead.
Alternative Routes Are Being Chosen Deliberately
The analyst argues that if Turkey’s real objective were to strengthen regional connections and integrate Armenia into new transport networks, routes passing through Armenian territory — particularly through Gyumri — could have been utilized.
Instead, Ankara chose a different path.
“This demonstrates that Turkey continues its policy of isolating Armenia and does not link its strategic projects to Armenia’s participation,” Sargsyan stated.
The Problem Goes Beyond Diplomatic Disputes
According to Sargsyan, the core problem in Armenian-Turkish relations is far deeper than individual political disagreements or diplomatic disputes.
He believes that neither Armenia nor Turkey has yet developed a clear understanding of what the Republic of Armenia represents as a political phenomenon and what role it should play in the region.
Sargsyan argues that Turkey and Azerbaijan do not fully accept Armenia as an independent neighboring state.
According to him, Azerbaijani officials have repeatedly suggested that Armenian statehood is acceptable only if Armenia agrees to conditions defined by Baku.
“For years there have been attempts to move forward by accepting or accommodating Turkish and Azerbaijani demands. Yet this has not resulted in Armenia being fully recognized as an independent political actor,” he said.
The Recognition of Armenian Statehood Remains Unresolved
The political analyst believes this remains one of the main challenges facing Armenian political thought.
In his view, no political formula has yet been found that would resolve the issue of Armenia’s international recognition and perception as a sovereign state.
Referring to historical developments, Sargsyan noted that the question of Armenian statehood stood at the center of regional negotiations and disputes a century ago as well.
According to him, Soviet Armenia emerged as a result of Russian-Turkish agreements, but outside the framework of Russian influence there has never been a complete consensus regarding Armenia’s role and status.
Moscow Has Yet to Define Armenia’s Place
Sargsyan also addressed Russia’s role in regional affairs.
He argues that Moscow has not yet fully determined what place Armenia should occupy within its long-term regional strategy.
According to him, as Russia faces new challenges and declining influence, its primary objective is to prevent the expansion of Western influence in Armenia.
For that reason, Moscow may be willing to increase Turkey’s regional role, viewing it as a counterbalance to Western involvement.
“Elements of such an approach were visible during the Karabakh process as well. Russia may temporarily strengthen Turkey’s influence until it clarifies its own strategic objectives in the region,” Sargsyan said.
Regional Balance Will Shape Future Relations
The analyst concludes that numerous military and political issues surrounding Armenia remain unresolved.
In his view, the future of Armenian-Turkish normalization will depend not only on bilateral negotiations but also on the evolving balance of power among regional actors.