It is still too early to draw final conclusions about the consequences of Russia’s restrictions, but early warning signs are already visible and causing concern among Armenian businesses. This was stated by business consultant Aren Apikyan.
According to him, the issue is particularly alarming at the start of the agricultural season, when Armenian apricots, mulberries, cherries, fresh greens, canned products, and alcoholic beverages enter the market.
If export difficulties continue, a significant portion of these goods could remain within the domestic market, creating serious losses for producers.
The European Market Will Not Open Automatically
Commenting on government statements about significantly increasing exports to the European Union, Apikyan expressed skepticism about such expectations.
In his view, export growth depends not only on Armenia’s willingness to sell but also on whether European buyers are prepared to purchase Armenian products.
“When we say Europe will buy our goods, we need to understand that the European Union as an institution does not purchase products. They are bought by specific European companies and importers, and commercial relationships must be built with each of them separately,” he explained.
European Producers Are Protected by Strict Rules
Apikyan argues that access to European markets is further complicated by the EU’s agricultural policies.
According to him, European countries actively protect their domestic producers through strict standards, quotas, and other regulatory restrictions.
At the same time, competition among agricultural producers within the EU is already intense.
For this reason, he believes claims that Armenia can quickly replace the Russian market with European destinations are overly optimistic.
Businesses Are Already Concerned
Speaking about the mood within the business community, Apikyan noted that many export-oriented companies are already worried about the current situation.
Some firms have already begun suffering losses, while others are waiting to see whether the restrictions will directly affect their operations.
Restrictions Could Expand Further
Apikyan also did not rule out the possibility that Russian measures could be extended to additional sectors of the economy.
In his opinion, such processes are usually implemented gradually, increasing economic pressure step by step.
Replacing the EAEU Market Will Take Years
Summarizing his assessment, Apikyan stressed that Armenia’s economy remains closely tied to the Eurasian Economic Union market.
According to him, this dependence cannot be replaced quickly through alternative export destinations.
He argues that success in European markets requires far more than political declarations. Armenia needs competitive products, long-term cooperation with importers, and production systems that fully comply with European standards.
Without these prerequisites, Apikyan believes it will be difficult for the European direction to fully replace Armenia’s traditional export markets in the foreseeable future.