A de facto peace has already emerged between Armenia and Azerbaijan and now needs to be legally and institutionally formalized through the signing of a peace agreement. This view was expressed by Vahram Atanesyan, a former member of the National Assembly of the Republic of Artsakh.
According to Atanesyan, peace is reflected not only in the relative stability along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border but also in the fact that Azerbaijan allows goods to be transported through its territory to Armenia and even sells gasoline and diesel fuel to the country.
“These are signs that the sides may eventually establish full relations, both in trade and economic cooperation and in communications, and move toward at least an atmosphere of mutual tolerance,” Atanesyan said.
At the same time, he stressed that the key question is how favorable the international environment is for the final signing of an Armenian-Azerbaijani peace agreement.
The Peace Agreement and the International Environment
According to Atanesyan, regional developments could have a significant impact on the pace of the process.
He said the United States serves as the political and mediating pillar of the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process, as the relevant documents were signed at the White House on August 8, 2025.
At the same time, U.S. initiatives do not always produce the expected results, whether in efforts to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict or in developments surrounding Iran.
Against this background, Atanesyan said the question arises as to how much Azerbaijan takes into account the authority and involvement of the U.S. president.
He did not rule out the possibility that other interested geopolitical centers could offer Baku alternative approaches amid intensifying competition in the South Caucasus.
“We do not know how the situation around Iran will end or what agreements the United States and Iran will eventually reach. Certain events may not seem particularly significant when considered separately, but when you try to see the connections between them, questions arise,” he said.
Central Asia and Regional Realignments
According to Atanesyan, it is important to determine whether the current environment favors the rapid signing of an Armenian-Azerbaijani agreement or could instead create new obstacles.
He noted that recent high-level contacts between Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries could create a favorable environment for Baku to adapt to the emerging regional situation.
At the same time, other assessments suggest that these developments could be connected to efforts to integrate the region into a Turkish sphere of influence.
Atanesyan, however, argued that assessments should be based on tangible realities rather than assumptions.
“The objective reality is that the de facto peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan must receive institutional recognition through the signing of an agreement,” he said.
The Agreement Could Be Signed Soon or Take Much Longer
Atanesyan said it is difficult to predict when the peace agreement will be signed. The process could take a long time, although he did not rule out the possibility of an agreement being signed before the end of the year.
He also addressed recent statements by an aide to the president of Azerbaijan suggesting that the issue related to Armenia’s Constitution could be resolved not only through a referendum but through other mechanisms as well.
Atanesyan said he had no information about any specific Armenian-Azerbaijani discussions on this matter.
However, he stressed that the sooner the peace agreement is signed, ratified and enters into force, the more beneficial it will be for all sides.
According to Atanesyan, ending a conflict that has lasted for more than three and a half decades and concluding a legally binding agreement would be significant not only for Armenia and Azerbaijan but also for the wider region and international actors.
In his assessment, once a prolonged conflict ends and the parties establish a new legal reality, both their partners and other states take that reality into account and shape their future policies on the basis of the new conditions.