Against the backdrop of ongoing tensions in the Middle East, the Israeli government unanimously recognized the Armenian Genocide after decades of refusing to do so. Why was this decision made at this particular moment? Was it directed exclusively against Turkey, or did it also carry an Iranian dimension? And how should Armenia respond, given its strategic relations with Iran and the fact that Israel remains Tehran’s main regional adversary?
These questions were addressed by Iran expert Aram Shahnazaryan.
Turkey Was the Primary Target of Israel’s Decision
According to Shahnazaryan, the principal political target of Israel’s decision was Turkey.
He argues that the move should be viewed in the context of the severe deterioration of Israeli-Turkish relations over recent years, particularly during the latest period of heightened tensions.
“The primary target is naturally Turkey, considering the increasingly tense relations between the two countries. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly stated, including in recent remarks, that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan regularly speaks about the destruction of Israel. This was a political strike aimed at a very specific target,” the expert says.
Armenia Should Use the Political Opportunity
Commenting on Armenia’s possible response, Shahnazaryan stresses that states should be capable of taking advantage of political opportunities when they emerge.
In his view, if such a significant political opportunity presents itself, the basic rules of politics require that it be utilized.
“If such an exceptional opportunity has been created for you, then according to the simplest principles of politics, it should be used. As for the reaction of Armenia’s current authorities, which has so far been absent, it would have been logical to welcome such a decision,” he argues.
Recognition Could Be Combined With Criticism of Israel’s Regional Policy
According to Shahnazaryan, Armenia could have combined a welcoming statement with its own assessment of Israel’s role in the region.
The expert believes that official Yerevan could have referred to developments in Artsakh, Israel’s role during the 44-day war, and Israeli-Azerbaijani strategic relations.
“After welcoming the decision, Armenia could have reminded the international community of Israel’s destructive role in the region by referring to the events in Artsakh, Israel’s role during the 44-day war, and Israeli-Azerbaijani strategic relations, which have not only altered the balance of power but have also contributed to regional destabilization. I believe the response should have remained within those boundaries,” he says.
Such an Approach Would Also Have Been Understandable for Iran
The expert believes that this type of response would have been understandable for the Islamic Republic of Iran as well.
According to Shahnazaryan, Tehran understands the historical and political significance that recognition of the Armenian Genocide has for Armenia and the Armenian people.
“In that case, I believe Iran would have approached the issue with the same logic, understanding the importance of Armenian Genocide recognition for Armenia and for the Armenian nation. However, as I have already noted, the current Armenian authorities have effectively pushed this issue aside,” he says.
The Key Issue Is Whether Armenia Can Benefit Politically
Discussing the practical consequences of Israel’s decision, Shahnazaryan emphasizes that the main issue is not the recognition itself, but Armenia’s ability to make political use of it.
According to him, Armenia should seek to maximize every political development that creates additional pressure on Turkey.
“Armenia must be able to use such opportunities. In general, any political act or political development that weakens Turkey’s position should be utilized as effectively as possible. The same principle applies to opportunities that arise in relation to Azerbaijan,” the expert argues.
The Main Question Is Whether the Current Authorities Intend to Use This Opportunity
At the same time, Shahnazaryan expresses doubts that the current Armenian leadership is willing to use such opportunities.
He believes there is a possibility that the authorities will prefer to ignore the situation and continue pursuing their so-called “era of peace” policy.
“The main question is whether the current authorities intend to use such opportunities or, on the contrary, prefer to ignore them, avoid responding, and eventually let them be forgotten while pursuing their so-called ‘era of peace’ policy,” the expert concludes.