The developments unfolding around Armenia today are part of a long-term strategy that began taking shape in the summer of 2022 and is being implemented with the silent consent of Armenia’s current authorities, according to Metakse Hakobyan, a member of the Justice faction in the National Assembly of Artsakh.
Society Is Being Given an Illusion of Security
Hakobyan argues that the Armenian authorities are encouraging the belief that the absence of a large-scale war means there is no real threat.
“They tell people there is no war, no casualties and no shooting by Azerbaijan, therefore there is no problem. But the absence of war does not mean the absence of danger. Azerbaijan has found a way to weaken Armenia step by step without launching a full-scale military campaign,” she said.
According to Hakobyan, the ongoing developments are aimed not at military occupation but at the gradual weakening of Armenian statehood.
She believes discussions on the transfer of so-called enclaves, the TRIPP project, greater control over Syunik and the issue of returning Azerbaijanis are interconnected elements of Baku’s strategy to gradually dismantle Armenia’s state institutions.
Baku Seeks International Acceptance of the “Zangezur Corridor”
Commenting on recent statements by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Hakobyan said Baku is deliberately attempting to legitimize the term “Zangezur Corridor” internationally.
She noted that Aliyev recently claimed at an international forum in Shusha that even the United States accepts this terminology, presenting it as a transport connection between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan.
Hakobyan argues that the practical implications are very different.
“In reality, this concerns establishing control over that part of Armenia. Although officials claim Armenian sovereignty will remain intact, parallel developments suggest otherwise,” she said.
A US Company Is Already Working in Southern Armenia
Hakobyan also claims that surveying and assessment work is already underway in southern Armenia and is being carried out by an American company.
She believes this contradicts Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s repeated assurances that Armenia’s sovereignty will not be restricted.
“If everything remains under Armenia’s control, why are such activities already taking place? In my opinion, this directly contradicts the government’s public statements,” she said.
According to Hakobyan, the project is already moving forward with the involvement of both the United States and Azerbaijan.
Border Delimitation May Lead to Further Territorial Concessions
Hakobyan expressed concern that future stages of border delimitation could result in additional territorial concessions by Armenia.
She noted that negotiations focus heavily on returning enclaves, while there is almost no discussion about the possible return of Artsvashen.
“We are told that enclaves must be returned, but is Azerbaijan prepared to return Artsvashen? That question is not being raised at all,” she said.
She also questioned why Armenian territories are described as enclaves while Armenia is expected to negotiate over land that she considers indisputably sovereign Armenian territory.
Tigranashen Is a Strategic Security Point
Hakobyan described Tigranashen as a location of exceptional strategic importance for Armenia’s national security.
She argued that even from a purely military perspective, transferring control over the area could significantly weaken the country’s defense capabilities.
At the same time, she questioned why discussions are not focused on the return of Jermuk, Ishkhanasar and other territories currently under Azerbaijani control.
The Return of Artsakh Armenians Is Not Comparable
Hakobyan also rejected attempts to place the return of displaced Artsakh Armenians and the proposed return of Azerbaijanis to Armenia within the same framework.
According to her, the two issues differ fundamentally in their historical, political and legal nature.
She added that Azerbaijan actively promotes its position through state-funded programs, international conferences and dedicated policy initiatives.
Meanwhile, she argues that the issue of the return of Artsakh Armenians has not become part of Armenia’s state policy.
Armenian Refugees Remain Outside the International Agenda
Hakobyan concluded that international discussions continue to focus on the return and compensation of Azerbaijanis, while the rights of Armenian refugees displaced from Azerbaijan receive very little attention.
In her view, there are no meaningful international efforts aimed at compensation, support or restoring the rights of Armenian refugees, reflecting what she describes as an ongoing imbalance in the broader negotiation process.