Armenia will need about 1,200 MW of new nuclear capacity by 2036–2037 to provide dependable baseload power, according to Aram Marjanyan, a UN national expert on energy issues.
Marjanyan said Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s recent statement that a new 1,000 MW nuclear power plant might be the most logical solution for Armenia suggested the government was gradually moving toward a more realistic position. He recalled that the first roundtable of the Armenian Energy Initiative, held in August 2023, had identified a need for approximately 1,200 MW of new reactor capacity by 2036–2037. In his view, Armenia’s power system needs dependable baseload generation that solar photovoltaic and wind facilities cannot provide on their own.
Marjanyan also pointed to the Armenian government’s five-year program, which he said explicitly identifies a need for dependable generation and energy storage. He sees the shift as a positive and encouraging development, arguing that the government is moving toward a more realistic and professional position on the issue.
Technology should be chosen on engineering and economic grounds
Another important point in the prime minister’s recent statement, according to Marjanyan, is that the technology for a new nuclear unit should be selected exclusively on professional, engineering and economic grounds, rather than for political or geopolitical reasons.
The expert noted that officials had previously said the choice of nuclear technology was not a political matter and should reflect economic and energy security considerations. Yet, in his assessment, the earlier preference for modular reactors was driven more by geopolitics. Marjanyan said large-scale modular reactor programs are now being pursued particularly in the United States. He suggested that the first tests of such plants could take place in the next five to seven years.
Armenia’s difficulty, he argued, is that a new nuclear unit must be ready and operating reliably by 2036–2037. In his view, recognizing this requirement is what makes proposals based on pressurized water reactors the first options to consider.
Who is ready to build a nuclear plant in Armenia?
Marjanyan named several countries offering Armenia a new nuclear unit, including the United States, South Korea, France and Russia. China’s possible participation is also under discussion. He drew a distinction, however, between having the potential to build a plant and presenting a proposal already supported by engineering work and an economic assessment. “Wanting to build and being able to build are very different things,” he said.
At present, Russia is the only country with a more or less developed, comprehensive proposal for Armenia, according to Marjanyan. He also referred to the visit by the head of Rosatom to Armenia, during which, he said, fairly specific proposals were presented.
Marjanyan’s assessment of the U.S. option
Addressing a possible U.S. proposal, Marjanyan stressed that he was not questioning America’s technological or financial capacity. He said the United States had not built new nuclear power plants outside its territory for decades and that the last plant built by American companies dated back roughly two decades.
In Marjanyan’s assessment, the United States has fallen behind Russia and even China over the past 30 years in constructing economically viable nuclear plants based on pressurized water reactors. He added that the U.S. is now pursuing a new nuclear energy development program.
Another important condition for Armenian–U.S. cooperation, he said, is the so-called 123 Agreement. Marjanyan noted that work on it had begun but that it had not yet been signed or ratified. He estimated that signing and completing the required procedures could take another six to twelve months, after which the legal basis for specific proposals would be in place.
Marjanyan also argued that a feasibility study presented by the United States should not be treated as an engineering-ready proposal. “I cannot regard it as an engineering-developed proposal because it is not based on a reactor that has already been developed and is in operation,” he said. With the Russian offer, he added, the reactor, its capacity and its technology are already known.
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