In Azerbaijan, a case is being considered regarding an attempted state coup. According to official sources, the organizer is named as the former head of the Azerbaijani President’s Administration and President of the National Academy of Sciences, Ramiz Mehdiyev. He is accused of high treason, attempting to seize power, and financial crimes. According to official reports, Mehdiyev allegedly tried, with foreign — particularly Russian — support, to change the system of state governance and create a State Council to limit the president’s powers.
Can Aliyev lose power in Azerbaijan, taking into account the influence of external factors? International relations expert Grigor Balasanyan shared his opinion on this issue.
According to him, such a possibility always exists, and this fear has always been and will always be present in Aliyev Jr.:
“The Azerbaijani society, its overwhelming majority being Shiite-oriented, is in any case under the influence of Iran. Therefore, they do not like the fact that Aliyev has completely placed Azerbaijan at the feet of Sunni Turkey. This naturally leads to the Sunnitization of Azerbaijan, which cannot please the country’s political forces and citizens,” he said.
Balasanyan added that, in his opinion, Aliyev expected to gain serious political dividends by annexing Artsakh. Of course, the expert notes, Aliyev did receive certain dividends, but they only temporarily softened the social discontent that exists today among Azerbaijani citizens.
“We see what is happening in Azerbaijan: war participants are in a dire state, relatives of the fallen have still not received compensation, while oil dollars go exclusively into the pockets of the Aliyevs and people bearing the Aliyev surname. All this indicates that the overwhelming majority of Azerbaijani society receives no financial benefit from the uncontrolled sale of the country’s oil and gas resources by the Aliyev family. Therefore, there is serious discontent with Aliyev’s rule,” he noted.
Moreover, despite the rates of prosperity proclaimed by Aliyev, 80–100 thousand people leave Azerbaijan annually — emigration is reaching frightening scales.
“We can see this by observing what is actually happening in Artsakh today. In essence, there are almost no Azerbaijanis in Artsakh today — except for a few buildings in Stepanakert populated under duress and a couple of backgammon players in Shushi. And here a question arises: where have those Azerbaijanis who were ‘fighting for the motherland’ gone, why are they not lining up to settle in Artsakh?” he wondered.
Balasanyan is convinced that Azerbaijanis do not want to move to Artsakh for two reasons.
“First, a new generation has grown up that, in essence, has never considered Artsakh its homeland; second, people perfectly understand that the Armenians will return. This is a serious psychological complex that Azerbaijani society is unable to overcome,” he said. This circumstance also negates the influence of the dividends Aliyev gained from capturing Artsakh.
The expert asserts that all this is temporary: a new government will come to Armenia, a new situation will emerge when the National Assembly adopts a law on the return of Artsakh Armenians, these people will return, and the international community will also force Azerbaijan to ensure their return.
“Aliyev is well aware of all this and therefore feels the threat. It is precisely due to the weakness of his positions that he has started a witch hunt in his country. And I will say more: we must be able to use this, contribute to increasing the number of ‘witches’,” Balasanyan concluded.