Armenia is entering a new electoral phase, and experts are already warning of rising political tension and increasing pressure on opposition forces. Political analyst Alen Gevondyan argues that upcoming developments should be viewed not only through the lens of elections but within a broader framework of political confrontation.
Pressure on the opposition before the campaign
According to him, the key question is whether opposition forces capable of passing the electoral threshold will be able to participate under fair and equal conditions. He notes that significant pressure is already being applied to these groups.
Gevondyan does not rule out the possibility that some parties may face registration obstacles, while their representatives could be subjected to detentions, arrests, or other restrictive measures. He also observes that the current prime minister has openly expressed concerns about certain opposition actors, including “Strong Armenia.”
He argues that the consistent criticism and delegitimization of opposition forces indicate a high level of internal tension and a perception of political risk. In his view, these measures aim to weaken opposition capacity even before the active phase of the campaign begins.
The need for an opposition strategy
In this context, Gevondyan emphasizes the importance of preparedness. Opposition forces must not only recognize the risks but also develop multi-layered strategies.
“Politics is not improvisation or performance; it is a pragmatic process that requires calculation and readiness for different scenarios,” he states.
He stresses the need for both a primary strategy and contingency plans to maintain resilience under pressure.
Developments around “Strong Armenia”
At the same time, Gevondyan doubts that authorities will take extreme steps such as denying registration to political forces, including “Strong Armenia.”
He considers it more likely that authorities will pursue a gradual weakening strategy through reputational attacks and information pressure.
However, he questions the effectiveness of such methods, noting that they do not always produce the intended political outcomes.
Post-election dynamics
Gevondyan also highlights the limited role of elections themselves. In his view, political transformations in Armenia are not confined to the electoral process, and the most significant developments may occur after the vote.
He concludes by noting that the current authorities perceive political competition as a form of intense confrontation, in some aspects approaching the logic of internal conflict.
In this context, both pre-election actions and post-election developments should be carefully assessed, as they may prove decisive for the country’s political future.