The current phase of Armenia–Turkey relations is shaped not by equality but by a winner–loser logic. This view was expressed by former Armenian Foreign Minister Ara Ayvazyan. In his assessment, the dominant side sets the terms, while the weaker side has effectively chosen to accept them.
Ayvazyan recalls that in the past, high-level contacts existed between Yerevan and Ankara, including the so-called “football diplomacy.” Despite significant disagreements and the absence of formal diplomatic relations, that dialogue, he argues, maintained a more balanced and dignified character. The current situation, however, differs substantially: Armenia operates from a weaker position, rapidly meets demands, yet no meaningful progress follows. Moreover, he suggests that the list of joint demands from Turkey and Azerbaijan continues to expand.
He also points out that, despite official claims that the normalization process is proceeding without preconditions, such conditions exist even in minor issues. As an example, he cites discussions on allowing third-country nationals to transit through Armenia, noting that such steps are largely symbolic rather than strategically significant. Even on these issues, no concrete agreements have been reached.
According to Ayvazyan, Armenia must realistically assess the situation and shape its policy toward restoring the disrupted balance, not through escalation but through strengthening its own position.
He emphasizes that internal capacity is the key factor in this process. “Security begins from within,” he notes, stressing the need to reinforce political, institutional, economic, military, and technological foundations. In his view, there is currently a weakening across all these areas.
Ayvazyan also highlights the role of the Armenian diaspora, arguing that it should not be viewed merely as a source of charitable or lobbying support. Instead, it should become an integral part of Armenia’s strategic capabilities, expanding its influence internationally.
He further addresses the issue of alliances, emphasizing that they should be based on aligned interests rather than a return to a “client” status. Given the current regional dynamics, he notes that other states may also be заинтересованы in restoring balance.
In this context, he proposes the formation of a strategic triangle involving Armenia, Iran, and Russia, centered on the “North–South” infrastructure project. According to him, such an approach could contribute to regional stability.