Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated at a conference of Turkish ambassadors that Ankara would take “symbolic steps” next year in the process of normalizing relations with Yerevan. He did not clarify what exactly these steps would involve. This has raised questions about Turkey’s real intentions and about what Armenia should realistically expect.
Political analyst Suren Surenyants commented on Erdoğan’s statement.
Normalization remains linked to the Armenia–Azerbaijan process
According to Surenyants, the statement allows for several important conclusions. First of all, Turkey continues to view Armenia–Turkey relations not as an independent agenda. Instead, Ankara treats them as a derivative of the Armenia–Azerbaijan track.
In practical terms, this means that real normalization with Yerevan is linked exclusively to the signing of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Moreover, this agreement is expected to follow the model proposed by Baku.
Why “symbolic steps” do not imply substantive progress
The analyst argues that the “symbolic steps” mentioned by Erdoğan should not be understood as institutional or substantive progress. It is more likely that they refer to demonstrative and limited initiatives.
Such steps may create the appearance of movement without altering the core structure of relations. According to Surenyants, these gestures could help Armenia’s current leadership, particularly Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, strengthen its domestic and pre-election position by presenting an image of external “progress.”
Symbolic gestures and political calculation
Surenyants notes that symbolic gestures from Turkey could include opening the border for third-country nationals, launching direct flights, restoring railway links, or taking other minor steps. These measures could allow Pashinyan to demonstrate “visible progress” to the domestic audience.
At the same time, the analyst stresses that the process is not one-sided. Erdoğan also expects concrete benefits. Among them, he mentions possible gains such as the opening of the so-called Zangezur corridor.
According to Surenyants, this is more a matter of mutual interest than an effort aimed solely at supporting Armenia’s internal political dynamics.
Turkey’s three parallel objectives
At this stage, Surenyants believes that Turkey is attempting to address three objectives simultaneously. The first is maintaining communication with Yerevan. The second is preserving full political coordination with Baku. The third is supporting an Armenian government that is willing to accept an imposed agenda under the banner of peace.
A controlled process rather than equal partnership
“Behind statements about peace, Turkey continues to operate within a logic of rigid linkage,” Surenyants concludes. In this framework, Armenia is viewed not as an equal partner. Instead, it is treated as an object of a controlled political process.