Developments unfolding around Iran are gradually drawing almost all countries of the Middle East into the process. The South Caucasus will most likely not remain outside these dynamics either. In recent days, a statement circulated by Azerbaijan received significant attention in the information space. According to that report, drone strikes were carried out in the direction of Nakhichevan, damaging airport terminals and nearby infrastructure.
Several days later, the official Facebook page of the Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran published a statement or hint suggesting that the drones discovered in Nakhichevan were actually of Azerbaijani origin.
Questions and uncertainties around the drones
According to Turkologist and historian Varuzhan Geghamyan, the information circulating about the drones may have several different explanations. However, it is still too early to draw definitive conclusions.
The expert notes that even before the embassy’s publication, certain reports and photographs were already circulating. These images appeared to show Azerbaijani-language markings on the drones or their components.
This immediately raises several questions regarding the real origin of the devices, where they were manufactured, and from where they were launched.
The possible provocation scenario
The first possible scenario, according to Geghamyan, is that the incident may represent an Israeli provocation aimed at drawing Azerbaijan into a broader conflict.
In such a situation, Azerbaijan would hardly act entirely independently. Most likely its actions would be coordinated with Turkey or at least carried out with Ankara’s approval.
In this case, one of the objectives of such a provocation might have been to pull Turkey into military confrontation with Iran. Geghamyan recalls that one day earlier a missile of unknown origin, attributed to Iran, had been detected and intercepted in Turkey. If the two incidents are viewed together, they may indicate an attempt to involve Turkey in the conflict.
The scenario of Iranian involvement
The second possible scenario is that the drones may actually have been launched by Iran.
Although the Iranian state officially denies such involvement, Geghamyan argues that this possibility cannot be entirely ruled out. The reasoning relates to the current structure of governance in Iran.
The expert explains that after the assassination of the country’s spiritual leader, the governance system partially shifted toward a “mosaic” model. This means that different institutions and branches of power, including military structures, may sometimes act with relative autonomy.
Under such circumstances, certain military units could make independent decisions without direct approval from the central authorities. According to Geghamyan, similar situations have occurred before. For example, after a strike in the direction of Oman, Iran’s central authorities later acknowledged that the development had not been desirable, suggesting the action may have been carried out by an independent unit.
In this context, it is conceivable that a commander of a military unit operating in the Nakhichevan direction may have decided to send a warning to Baku.
Geghamyan notes that drone units in Iran are primarily subordinate to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). According to him, the IRGC functions as a powerful and influential military force with its own significant role within the Iranian system.
A possible attempt to prevent Israeli activity
Within this context, some information sources suggest that the incident may have been a preventive Iranian strike aimed at countering possible Israeli activity in Nakhichevan and nearby border areas.
According to this hypothesis, Iran may have attempted to send a signal to Azerbaijan and Turkey indicating that it would not tolerate Israeli military or intelligence presence in that region.
Geghamyan notes that various indirect reports have long pointed to potential Israeli intelligence or radar-related activity in the southern territories of Nagorno-Karabakh under Azerbaijani control near the Araks River.
If these reports are accurate, the drone incident could represent a preventive action intended to limit such activity.