The real purpose of the regional visit by U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance is a new phase of military and political pressure on Iran, within which the South Caucasus is gradually turning into a platform for proxy warfare. In this framework, Azerbaijan is assigned a key role, while Armenia finds itself in the position of a servicing party. This view is expressed by political analyst Stepan Danielyan.
According to him, such visits are always accompanied by so-called “key statements” that reveal the full political context of the trip. Vance made such a statement precisely in Baku, declaring that Azerbaijan is a unique country that simultaneously maintains good relations with both Turkey and Israel.
In the analyst’s view, all of Vance’s other statements should be interpreted through the lens of this formulation.
Against the backdrop of deep contradictions in relations between Turkey and Israel, Azerbaijan acts as the only common partner, while at the same time being located directly north of Iran. According to Danielyan, this turns Azerbaijan into the main platform for possible actions against Iran.
The same logic applies to the movement of U.S. aircraft carriers, the concentration of troops around Iran’s borders, and the deepening military and economic cooperation with Baku. As the analyst formulates it, this entire chain is directed exclusively against Iran, with Azerbaijan chosen as the primary proxy.
In this context, Armenia is left with a secondary, servicing role. Danielyan highlights an important point: the provision of reconnaissance drones to Armenia. Normally, Azerbaijan always reacts when weapons are supplied to Armenia. This time, there was no reaction. Danielyan raises the question: if they are not directed against Azerbaijan, Turkey, or Georgia, then against whom are they intended? According to the analyst, the answer is obvious: this reconnaissance is directed against Iran, and Armenia is effectively being drawn into these operations.
The political analyst also emphasizes the importance of the timing factor. In a few months, midterm elections to the U.S. Congress and Senate are expected. Until then, the president is not yet constrained by the legislative branch and can make swift decisions. In Danielyan’s view, this is precisely why the main steps regarding Iran must be taken before the elections, in order to demonstrate tangible results.
According to his forecast, key developments are possible in June–July. Danielyan stresses that Vance’s visit was not about regional cooperation, but about using the South Caucasus for war or pressure against Iran.