It is difficult to assess the feasibility of the TRIPP communication project; however, it appears more achievable than Point 9 of the Trilateral Statement of November 9, 2020. This opinion was expressed by political analyst Edgar Elbakyan.
“In the 2020 Trilateral Statement, the presence of Russia’s FSB on this road was clearly stipulated. This contradicted the interests of both the Armenian authorities and of Turkey, Azerbaijan, the West, and even Iran. In reality, only Russia sought to implement this provision, so there were no particular expectations about its realization,” he noted.
According to Elbakyan, the situation with TRIPP is fundamentally different. Azerbaijan and Turkey are satisfied with this option, since they are confident that sooner or later the United States will leave the region, as happened in Afghanistan, and the corridor will remain under their control. Iran’s positions have significantly weakened, making it unlikely that it will be able to prevent this scenario. Moreover, despite its harsh statements, Tehran has already begun considering how to use the new conditions to its advantage. Russia, likewise, does not take a firm stance on TRIPP, limiting itself to reminders that Point 9 of the Trilateral Statement formally remains in force.
“In other words, the situation is theoretically favorable. However, it is obvious that there is a clash of interests here, and in today’s rapidly changing world, everything can turn upside down in an instant,” the political analyst emphasized.
He also did not rule out that a situation may arise in which the Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance decides to forcibly open the corridor through Syunik, citing the documents signed by the Armenian side that provide for Azerbaijan’s unhindered connection with Nakhichevan.